Ask me how many MMOs besides WOW have sold over a million copies. I can think of only Guild Wars in the last couple years, and even that game they usually count the 'sequels/expansions'(whatever you want to call them) into the total count.
If this game goes on as a full blown MMO with a single player component that you play for free( which seems what they are doing) this game will sell around 800,000-900,000; and seeing how this is a PC game, it should be even smaller than if it was a console FPS/RPG with an MMO-type online experience.
I disagree, I have played this game and it kicks ass! When it comes out it will take the mmorpg genre into new and exciting directions! I will buy all the stock for this game at very low prices and then I will be rich with dkp when I sell them months after it's release!
I closed out my position in this stock after the news that the game is going to require a subscription for its full potential. Although they are considering a "free" mode, the game will most likely be intended to be played as an MMO. Historically, there have only been a handful of successful subscription based MMOs, World of Warcraft, Everquest, Lineage II...and then the list thins out. Most MMOs don't hit 100k. I think MMO plays are very risky and should only be a small part of a portfolio.
However, there are just too many easy money opportunities in the games that are already out. Just look at the numbers and there are games that are clearly undervalued and overvalued in relation to the sales we already know.
I don't see why this game is so undervalued, the previews for the game look great and this game has a lot of promise and seems to be part of the new PC game wave that is semi-pushed by Microsoft through the 'Games for Windows'.
MMMmm, just read the Shacknews article...it sounds like they are pretty intent on having a premium MMO service, but that is optional and you can play a scaled down version for free. Err, "some kind of free online mode..." that could be like Xbox Live Silver where you don't even get to play. All you get is to access the online marketplace to buy downloads (which they also mention as something they are looking at).
I think this is where the really cool part of the simExchange prediction market comes in. The stock response to this news is an indicator of how gamers feel about potential developer decisions like MMO subscription plan. If this gets big enough, a stock crash after a mentioning something like that could result in the developer reconsidering.
Oh I just saw the article posted by 13wonders that Hellgate is going to be a subscription based MMO. I definitely think that is a bearish factor for the game. WOW is the only MMO that has really seen blockbuster sales. Furthermore, this game doesn't sound like it's even designed like an MMO where you have huge raids and masses of people running around the landscape from the amount of instancing involved (but I could be wrong about that). Lack of focused PVP development is another downer.
A large part of the success of Diablo games were the Blizzard brand and preference for that type of game in South Korea. If I didn't read the game summary on the simExchange, I would have no idea this game had anything to do with Blizzard or Diablo. Furthermore, I don't think the first person shooter element is as popular in South Korea. For these reasons, I don't think we can directly compare this game to Diablo sales.
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If this game goes on as a full blown MMO with a single player component that you play for free( which seems what they are doing) this game will sell around 800,000-900,000; and seeing how this is a PC game, it should be even smaller than if it was a console FPS/RPG with an MMO-type online experience.