VGChartz is currently reporting that this game has already sold 60,000 copies. So I would obviously value this stock at a minimum of 6 DKP, maybe going up to 7 for any future growth, even though that might be a bit high.
To clarify my previous comment. The stock would do a one day big drop and then recover to similar levels with a set amount of time. Recently this stock has had three days in a row where the value has fallen way more then 2%. I don't see this growing past its recent highs anytime soon.
The value of this is that is a super value stock that even beginning investors can invest in. When they make enough off this stock they liquidate for better stock positions. This trend of buy low, sell high would plus the bonus of it being a value stock would tell you it is going to jump up in price.
@JoshuaJSlone, Thanks for the feedback. Was there a lot of that game for bargain sale in the shop you went to ?
I heard that this game's first (and only) shipment is 200K - 250K. I believe that with that LOW $20 price, the sales # should be around 150K (if you believe my 200K - 250K shipment figure, which I am told in confidence, so I couldn't link to it).
I wouldn't stop buying this stock until it is 15 DKP (150K GLS, which is my own estimated sales).
@apujanata, For what it's worth, I saw Battle of the Bands for $20 a few days ago. I'm somewhat interested in the title, so I would've picked it up... but I was out searching for Wii Music, and didn't want to get both at the same time.
@Arbiter, No, this game didn't show up on any other radar. I think we all agree that this game is a flop (compared to GH3 and Rock Band). However, the only difference is how big a flop this is. Some thinks it GLS should be < 100K, but not many dare to drive the price to that level. It seems the resistance point is at 150K (15 DKP price point).
Looking at VGC, it seems 20K is just for US. For whatever reason, there was no Other (Europe + etc) data, even though simEx has release data of May 23 for Europe. Strange, isn't it ? Anyway, because of the lack of Europe data, I think it is safe to say that this game fate is still in determination phase.
You are right, that for game that have very low #, like this one, VGC has much bigger percentage errors. I think it is not impossible for the actual sales # to be 100% more (40K instead of 20K). And I am banking on the fact that once this game goes into bargain bin ($20 or $30 in US), the sales will goes up (up to shipped #, which I have no idea). I know that I am reaching for straws here, but that is one of thing I enjoy going long, instead of going short :).
VGChartz is still only showing 20,000 unit sales for this title. Naturally, titles with low nominal number of sales will have much larger percentage errors. Has the sales of this game shown up on any other radar?
My total (current+past) loss is around 1.2 Million DKP (not as big as yours). I sold some of stocks at 16.61 price point (incurring 426K loss), but later on buy them back again at 15.96 price point.
Does this fact (Top 40 Wii games in UK for several weeks) important ? How well do you think this game sold in Europe ? IIRC, Europe love music games (like Singstar).
I now have 120K unit of BotB stock (average purchase price of 22.37 DKP. If my hunch are correct, and this game have good sales in Europe (and possibly Japan), then I stand to gain big :D.
Off-topic : Why VGC have the # for this game at N/A (Not Available) for Europe ? I find it strange. Is this a common occurance at VGC (I went there to check out the sales progress #, even though I don't think it is accurate).
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