It will be interesting to see the results of your experiences going long on GLSs more. I generally hold much more in long equity that I do short, but it depends very much on each players method of making money. Some like to be very diversified in hopes that gains in one area will offset loses in another. Others tend to be very high risk, hoping that their predictions of monthly sales pays off. Maybe KultofCows can compile opinions players have and their various strategies, then compile it into a report looking into how different strategies pay out in the market. It would be interesting to see what strategies are generally more successful, as it seems many people here are constantly trying new methods of making money while others stick to the same tactic.
Regarding this stock, I will probably continue to invest, but a bit more cautiously as I wait to see what the fallout will be from this massive drop. If numbers and other evidence suggest that this game is doing better than currently forecasted, then I will start to invest more, but at the moment I have only the success of other casual games on the Wii and the other reasonings I made in previous post to support this. I await hard numbers or charts so that I can get a clearer picture of how this game will do.
Well, I believe that the reason you and others provided are reasonable, so I will keep on investing in this stock, mostly using my time bonus DKP.
I was searching for a stock to use my time bonus DKP on, and this stock is even better than my previous one (Mario & Sonic DS), so I am going to switch it.
The other thing is that I want to at least once, try it out from the long side. I almost always invest in the short side on GLS stock, and I want to test out my theory (that long side is more advantegous in a GLS environment, compared to short).
Before, Zukaus & me are on the long side in Prof. Layton, now I will go against him (if it is him shorting this stock), and this will surely give me experience that are invaluable.
I do not know that zukaus shorted this stock, I only guessed based off of what his profile said and the amount the stock has plummeted. I have already bought many shares of this stock, but the price continues to depress and I have a good feeling that it will take a long time, if ever, for the price to rebound. Due to this I doubt I will keep investing, it would not seem a wise decision.
@Gaara42, How do you know it is Zukaus who shorted this stock ? At this moment, Zukaus only have 4.3 Million - 5.6 Million worth of short on this stock, which although significant, might not be the only reason this stock drop.
Well, if you think you are right, shouldn't you jump in ? The price is very cheap, only 22.10 DKP right now :)
Note : I don't really relish going against Zukaus (or any other Top 10 members), but I can hope they are wrong this time. After all, they are human, right ?
I was wondering who had the net worth to plummet this stock so quickly and it appears that zukaus has shorted this stock. My question then is, is everyone shorting this stock basing their prediction off of vgchartz numbers or do people have access to data that has not been post or is not readily found on the Internet? Basically I would like to hear the arguments for why this stock should be shorted to such a large degree without using vgchartz as a reason.
@Lithium, Let's see : Previous known error margin of VGC info : 50%. Let's do a whole lot of IF : Assuming standard leg : IF the actual first week is 9 K (6K + 50% error margin), then US should get 9K x 4 (converting to GLS) = 36K. IF Europe = US and Japan = 1/2 US, then GLS is 90K (or 9 DKP price point). Assuming fabulous leg : 9K x 10 = 90K (US only), and 225K WW (or 22.5 DKP price point).
Using VGC data, the future seem very, very bleak indeed for this game. However, what if VGC was really really wrong with this stock ? Those shorting them stand to loose a lot of money.
If what Gaara42 and lstormy10 predict did come true (500K + GLS WW), then those shorting this stock at 30 DKP price point are going to lose 40% of their investment, at the minimum.
This is a high risk, high gain/loss stock at this moment. Invest at your own risk.
@Gaara42, I would also not rule out a half of a million copies for this title. After seeing a title like Carnival Games reach a million copies sold, I would not rule out any casual game like Battle of the Bands reaching half of a million copies sold.
Liquidating your entire position based off of an unreliable source (especially at lower numbers and with regards to non-hardcore games) does not seem to be a wise decision. Especially when this game has yet to be released in Europe and PAL territories. This is an over-reaction to a guess made by an unsourced site. It is very likely that this game will slowly sell its way to over half a million copies, as pointed out here and here.
Yes, I see some numbers on VGC. It was 6k something units on the first week in the US if I am remembering correctly. Not very good at all. I had been hoping for the opposite, but have already liquidated my position, although with a 750k loss. I think Ill just continue to short the Ninja Gaiden future.
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It will be interesting to see the results of your experiences going long on GLSs more. I generally hold much more in long equity that I do short, but it depends very much on each players method of making money. Some like to be very diversified in hopes that gains in one area will offset loses in another. Others tend to be very high risk, hoping that their predictions of monthly sales pays off. Maybe KultofCows can compile opinions players have and their various strategies, then compile it into a report looking into how different strategies pay out in the market. It would be interesting to see what strategies are generally more successful, as it seems many people here are constantly trying new methods of making money while others stick to the same tactic.
Regarding this stock, I will probably continue to invest, but a bit more cautiously as I wait to see what the fallout will be from this massive drop. If numbers and other evidence suggest that this game is doing better than currently forecasted, then I will start to invest more, but at the moment I have only the success of other casual games on the Wii and the other reasonings I made in previous post to support this. I await hard numbers or charts so that I can get a clearer picture of how this game will do.