I've reread my original post in this thread and I realize I may have been a bit harsh with my choice of words. I have a tendency to be blunt and if I offended you I apologize.
I understand your long arguments even though I disagree with them. It appears this stock will be another battle for me. I believe there is considerable downside at the 300,000 level but I'm sure you all disagree. I'll return to my normal stance of not commenting on my trades and I'll let my DKP do the talking. Good luck.
@apujanata, Errata : "nothing is too ridiculous / impossible to happen"
Sample / Proof of Music genre sales on Wii with long legs : march 08 NPD : WII GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK 264.1K (#7 in Top 10, for a game released on Oct-07, which mean second oldest game in Top 10, After Wii Play).
I am not really directing this comment to you, but since you are in the short position, you are one of the many I am addressing this comment to.
One of the reason I am quite optimistic about the value of this stock, and am going to go against anyone (even zukaus, the mountain wall), is because : - this game is in the music genre, an market with significant upward trend (witnessed by i-pod, Guitar Hero, Rockband). As of today, this market haven't show sign of saturation (still have healthy sales, not too many competition yet) - this game is by THQ, a big publisher, so I HOPE the quality is not "embarassing". - This game is on Wii, where "nothing is not too ridiculous / impossible to happen" - Wii is "going to be / already the #1 console for casual", and BotB is a casual game. - I am going this in long position, not short position. IMO, long position is a stronger position (just like being white player in a chess was stronger position), since we can use the time bonus DKP, while short position doesn't have this luxury.
As an asides (and this is directed at nobody in particular) there are Wii games on this exchange with pretty high values and the general trend for the market is to be pretty bullish on Wii software. It's strange to me that games with far bigger question marks over their actual existence or years worth of franchise decay attached to them should be trading higher than a title from a genre very much on the up in the last year or so.
That isn't of course my sole reason for investing and admittedly there is potential for this to bomb quite hard but I see it as by no means more risky than investing in a few other Wii stocks right now, short or long.
I've been long on this stock for a while. I never pay attention to VGchartz either, especially for a game that like this one is under the radar and is likely to garner less than sufficient data to make their prediction model viable.
However, I would say it's a little unfair to compare this to games such as Looney Tunes, Mercury Meltdown or Ninja Reflex because I wouldn't label this game as shovelware. THQ have no entries in the music genre and absolutely jumped on the bandwagon here but they will have spent some money procuring licensing for the music they did get for this game. There is at least an attempt to not be completely derivative from the music games before it. I would say it's a reasonable bet that they will push this enough to garner a respectable 500K+ given the Wii's install base, in my opinion.
The Wii's audience is quite different from the previous sterotype console game buyer and ergo unpredictable. It's about to get more so with the huge influx of Wii Fit buyers coming in, those who weren't even suckered in with Wii Sports. The fact that Carnival Games did the numbers it did illustrates that this *can* happen. It's by no means guarenteed that it will, I've never been of the opinion this game will reach 1m and I was on the brink of cashing out here at one point a week ago at 65DKP but for the trader looking to pick up a slightly risky shot with potential for growth over 50% from current prices I'd say this wasn't a bad bet for a betting man.
I have checked some possible stocks which showed high volatility yesterday, this GLS and Wii GLS and two April futures moved very large amounts but finished with only small change to value. Only this GLS fell by a large amount.
Just a short point, I would often use vgchartz numbers with a disclaimer and would not put it forth as absolute fact. I also wouldn't use it as my sole argument if I was making one. And, I have been bashing vgchartz for a long time now, even when it was going in my favour, I tried to use other sources and arguments since they seemed more credible. Consequently, it is a bit disingenuous on your part of claim that I am calling people unwise (I said it might be a unwise decision to solely base your buy or sell options on that one source), when in fact I am asking for any further explanation beyond vgchartz for why this stock plummeted. Your examples are noted as further reason beyond vgchartz, which is what I was asking for.
Here's my short argument, you can ignore all mention of VGC if you wish.
The Wii is not this magical console where any publisher can just slap casual or music into the title and expect to sell a million units. Despite the hilarious gifs floating around the internet which suggest otherwise, Nintendo does not make consoles which automatically print money.
I see people pointing to titles like Carnival Games and Guitar Hero as reasons to why this title should easily sell 500,000 to 1 million and I think those comparisons are weak. Just because those games sold a lot does not mean Battle of the Bands (BotB) will. Why not compare this game to the numerous other shovelware games like Looney Tunes: Acme Arsenal, Ninja Reflex, or Mercury Meltdown Revolution a game which was recently delisted from trading on TSE.
It also seems a bit disingenuous on your part to now bash VGchartz and call people unwise when you yourself have often used their numbers in the past to influence others when they are in your favor. Now you are calling people unwise for using their data and you want to dismiss their numbers from the argument when it goes against you.
@Gaara42, Personally, my style is "put in a few basket (5 - 1- stocks)", not diversifying. Focus is my mantra, since it enable me to rise faster (and of course, drop faster). So far, this investment strategy is doing OK for me.
I am considering changing the above mentioned tactic, since I feel that with bigger networth, I need to diversify more, otherwise, once I mispredict something, I could lose most of my networth.
My unfortunate colleague from NeoGAF lost almost 50% of his networth today, and I most assuredly try to avoid that situation (by diversifying).
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I've reread my original post in this thread and I realize I may have been a bit harsh with my choice of words. I have a tendency to be blunt and if I offended you I apologize.
@deftangel and apujanata,
I understand your long arguments even though I disagree with them. It appears this stock will be another battle for me. I believe there is considerable downside at the 300,000 level but I'm sure you all disagree. I'll return to my normal stance of not commenting on my trades and I'll let my DKP do the talking. Good luck.