To reach 7 million in GTA IV sales at the historic best attach rate for this game (17.5%) you would need to have 40 million PS3s in circulation...
Given Sony's projections you would be looking at Xmas 2010 before getting to that level of console sales...I would think that there would be AT LEAST 1 more iteration of GTA released well before then...thus severely cutting into GTAIV sales at that point.
I would argue that GTA games continue to sell for over a year. Just looking at the install base at the end of 2008 is short-sighted when evaluating a GTA game. Remember, this prediction is for the LIFETIME sales of the game (including the $20 Greatest Hits versions).
Well..considering it will take a minimum of xmas 2008 before PS3 is at 20 million consoles sold (assuming 10 million consoles per year)...you would STILL be asking for 35% of all PS3 owners to purchase this game to get to 7 million sold....
GTA San Andreas was the biggest selling PS2 title in the series and it sold 14 million on an installed base of 80 million (attach rate of 17.5%)....
The premise looks set to be in Liberty City ('New York') with you seemingly playing an Eastern European (Russian? most likely) starting life anew in America.
The quote at the end of the trailer:
"Life is complicated. I killed people, smuggled people, shot people. Perhaps here, things will be different."
Thanks for the heads up Joe80. The graphics looks pretty good, we playing as a Russian gangster this time? Other than that...doesn't show too much. I do like the "GetALife" building.
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Given Sony's projections you would be looking at Xmas 2010 before getting to that level of console sales...I would think that there would be AT LEAST 1 more iteration of GTA released well before then...thus severely cutting into GTAIV sales at that point.