@Joe80, From June 2008 NPD Blog : "Neither Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) nor Grand Theft Auto IV (PS3) made the Top 10 this month and so we will need to get the data from NPD manually. There may be some delay due to E3."
My GTAIV PS3 short are still showing up in my portfolio screen, so you are not alone. I think KoC will need 1-2 more days to get the # from NPD, as per his post.
@kspraydad, I think this stock will keep on moving upward, until the release of NPD April data. Once it arrived, then the price will be adjusted, either upward or downward. I personally believe it is going to be downward, since hoping for high attachment rate is a little bit too optimistic.
Regarding futures: Are we really expecting 3 million sold in May + 1 week? Futures are just the US correct?
The US has a PS3 install base of approx 5 million consoles (by the end of May)...
Seems like a rather high attach rate... especially given the news about the problems with the PS3 version (of which I am a victim)...anyone I know that has a PS3 has been instructed (by myself) to hold off purchasing this game until the issues are fixed...this may be well beyond May.
This is an overpriced game. Do people really think the PS3 version, the version that is not going to get as much advertising and lacks DLC will get only 1 million fewer sales than the 360 version?
Collectively these two stocks are saying that somehow the franchise is going to grow by a significant % on top of it being on a smaller install base. This is stupidly overpriced at 800 DKP.
The highest selling GTA game on PS2 was Vice City with 13 million sales WW (Sony data), even with PC/Xbox sales, I doubt this achieved more than 15-16 million total sales. San Andreas sold 12 million WW on PS2 (Sony data), though Take-Two say 20 million total sales for it.
Current prices assume very high tie-ratio for this game on both systems, questionable if it can achieve these sales at current rates of hardware adoption.
Which is about what San Andreas did if I recall correctly. However, that was with a dominant PS2 at the peak of it's powers with the GTA series the defining game of the generation.
The situation this time is different, the target install base will be (i.e. 360+PS3 owners - the number of people who have both) than the PS2 was then. It remains to be seen if the Wii will be detrimental to the combined PS360 install base relative to the PS2 going forward but even so, GTA:IV has a lot more competition this time around.
Even if PS360 gets up to a level where it can support 80m potential customers (I'll exclude Japan as it'll never be big there in relative terms) you're looking at 1 in 4 of those picking up the first iteration of GTA in the generation. Sure, it could happen, it might even the only franchise even with a shout of it but I think that's a big ask.
I think some people (or even a lot) overcook the "GTA is synonymous with PlayStation" thing. Yes, GTA3 was massive on the PS2 but that was the PS2. Things this time round are very different. It's the 360 which is the "hardcore" software monster, it's day and date with the PS3 version, it has the exclusive content and you can bet MSFT will be reminding everyone about those two facts twice.
I don't see GTAIV's capability to push PS3 hardware any higher than the 360's. Quite the reverse actually if Microsoft get their marketing right but I think a lot of people are fixated on last gen and aren't taking into consideration the different circumstances.
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Thanks for the info. I wonder how badly they sold.