cerdsmania, look at the sales numbers. After a new version comes out, the sales of the old one drops dramatically. If there isn't an install/fan base large enough when it comes out, the sales won't be that great. If IV follows the sales trends of the last two games, 50-70% of its total sales will be in its first year, and the PS3 will never have system sales of the PS2.
If no other versions of GTA come out for the next 2-3 years after this is released, it'll still be lucky to hit 6 million.
the point isnt that. the point is people will continue buying the older versions even after newer ones are out. and it was the same thing with gta: when vice city was out and the same with vice city when san andreas was out. older versions continue to sell because people like to have the collection. they like to have all of the series so even if a new gta comes out after this one gtaIV will still sell.
I agree with Laoldar, Vice City Stories is no where in the league of GTAIV as we can see from its stock which is also trading on the simExchange. Very low trading interest and only 140 DKP stock price.
Remember, as bearish as the news on the PS3 is, it is selling better than the Xbox 360 was in the same time frame, and the PS3 has faced stiff competition from the Wii and 360 when the 360 had nearly no competition in the first 4 months. Of course, this conversation is more relevant to the PS3 thread.
What I do think is that given the forecasts on the PS3 and Xbox 360 here, they are going to be pretty even in the end game. If that is the case, the PS3 and Xbox 360 versions of GTAIV should be pretty even in terms of sales since the game will be a long-term seller. The one factor is a difference in demographic--if PS3 players are more likely to play a GTA game than XBox 360 players.
This game is highly anticipated by many, but is it fair to compare this game to its PS2 iterations? IV is multi-platform, it is unlikely it will have as high of an attach rate as previous entires in the series. While it will have a long term value attached to it, new additions to the series may overshadow it. IV will need to have a sort of new revolution this time around instead of just prettier graphics to attain the critical reception this time around. Just my two cents.
PSP ports aren't exactly going to sell as well as the full games.
Liberty City Stories only sold 1.1 on the PS2 so far (2.75 mil worldwide, 1 million less than the PSP version) and Vice City Stories hasn't hit 1 mil shipped worldwide (not even the PSP version). Those ports aren't in the same league of sales as the console series.
i disagree. vice city stories and liberty city stories are the new ones on the block yet people are still buying san andreas. its a collection people dont care if its outdated they will buy it. considering the fact many wont throw down 60 for a game as of yet later on with price drops it will sell like mad.
Sure PS2 owners bought all the GTA versions...but how many of them have a PS3? Did any of them move to the 360? Will they? It's quite possible that the 360 simultaneous release could bleed sales away from the PS3 version.
Looking at PS3 sales (and the aggregate prediction here), the PS3 will be lucky to get about half the install base that the PS2 had. The question is then if the half that stayed were the GTA fans or not.
Yes, GTA games keep selling even after another version is out. But not nearly as well. Vice City and San Andreas were extremely frontloaded (about 70% of Vice City's American sales were in its first year). San Andreas actually sold less in America than Vice City, so PAL sales were crucial (and we all know how that's going).
Several GTA-style games have appeared on the 360 already, and sold well. I'd say it's a distinct possibility that many GTA fans jumped from Sony to Microsoft for that, especially knowing that they'll get their GTA fix on time anyways.
I think it's tough to call...at this point, what advantage does the PS3 version have over the 360 for a GTA fan? Aside from a higher console pricetag. By the time the PS3 has a chance to get a large enough install base, I think a new entry in the series will come along and cannibalize its sales.
personally i have all the gta's and most people i know have the smae thing. even if they launched another grand theft auto people will still buy this one. anyways this game will sell at least 7 million. at least thats what i think.
I feel it should start at 7 million and we go from there up or down. GTA:SA sold ~14 mil & GTA IV is highly anticipated. However, there are tons of great games coming out around the same time. So it will have a lot of competition.
kspray, I agree with your points except for the argument that a new GTA would cut the demand for GTA IV. GTA games are not like Madden games. A new one doesn't make you not want to play the old one as they are not just "updates." People are still buying GTA III and GTA VC long after GTA SA came out.
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If there isn't an install/fan base large enough when it comes out, the sales won't be that great. If IV follows the sales trends of the last two games, 50-70% of its total sales will be in its first year, and the PS3 will never have system sales of the PS2.
If no other versions of GTA come out for the next 2-3 years after this is released, it'll still be lucky to hit 6 million.