so this and the xbox version are up 4-5% today at the moment. I wonder is there any way of showing a correlation between the price rising and an influx of new users on the site? Might be interesting to compare them
your way too overly optimistic. i think its safe to say that almost all of this games sales will come within 2 - 2.5 years of release (at that time we'll be on here talking about the GTA5 stock).
lets say starting now, PS3 sales start to skyrocket. By the end of the year they over double what they have hit in their first 8 months since release putting them at 8 million worldwide at the end of 2007. Next year it sells even faster and they pick up 12 million. 2009 even better and they sell 15 million. (which is in itself virtually unbelievable), putting PS3 sales at 35 million worldwide by the end of 2009.
now based on your projected sales numbers that would give almost a 20% attachment rate (on a VERY optomistic number of PS3s sold) to a game series that has never even broke higher than 12.1%, and has never had a competing (and cheaper) (and more content available) system selling the same game, at the same time.
i do agree with pillas, the stock price won't reflect the truth for quite some time to come, as people buy based on hype. i would stay away from this stock right now, wait for the overall growth to go through the hype and launch, and then short and double your money over the following few months.
Whats going against this game reaching the 7.35M predicted here is the install base. VGChartz puts ps3 at just 3.56M right now worldwide. At release in October I can't see this being over 4.5M.
Whats going for this game's figures is that christmas comes 2 months after the release and if sony do introduce a price drop as recent rumours suggest then ps3 sales will boost based on more people esp. parents being able to afford the console. As per usual christmas will bring a huge increase in sales anyway never mind price.
On top of this many people will have held off on ps3's over price and lack of quality games. GTA is one of those series of games like MGS and Gran Turismo and a few others that can boost this consoles sales by itself. People will go out and buy a newly affordable ps3 just to play GTA IV. I would expect this game's sales to start off decent but to sell very well over christmas and into the new year.
I would also expect the attachment rate to be higher for this game given the demographic of ps3 owners at the moment.
My opinion of the current price of 735DKP is that it is high but not as much as people are suggesting. Some have said it should be almost cut in half but I think a figure of 600-650DKP is more accurate until things are cleared up over christmas.
With flagging sales Sony will be looking at this game among others to bring it back into the console war so they will put a lot of money behind it in advertising around release time.
Verdict: Expect a sharp dip in price before release due to the install base issues but a solid recovery after christmas sales figures are released.
I have closely monitored the life of stocks over the past months here and feel fairly confident that there is an actual life cycle to them.
The reason a stock like this is so overpriced is because of Hype for the game and it's brand name.
When actual reviews come out it will affect the price of the stock, and then again when sales data first comes in it will also affect the price of the stock, until then expect an overall rise in the stock (it may go down on certain days but over the course of a month it will make a gain in value) until it gets closer to the release date.
I don't disagree...but the comment of 23 million consoles needed rectification.
I did short it when it came out (I'm not in at all right now) but there is always a strong buy mentality with these big names and have decided to sit this one out until Feb some time...
lets say for arguments sake that sony does in fact manage to hit the 30 million mark by that time. Even if GTA had its best attach rate ever, lets put it at 13%, which is higher than any of their games before (and is highly unlikely), that gives a maximum of 3.9 million copies sold ... and that doesn't even take into account that PS2 didn't have to compete with an XBOX version, with more content available, launching the same day. sorry, but i just don't see it happening. The only thing this stock has going for it is people signing up for the SimExchange and just buying stocks based on the games they like, the hard truth though is that this is one of the most overpriced stocks out there right now.
Fist let me say I'm not a next gen owner so hopefully I won't come off as a fanboy here...
You exclaim 'that's 23 million consoles'...yes...and SE is currently projecting 60 million PS3's sold.
I would imaging that if there is a GTA V it would be 2 years down the road from GTA IV release date.... that would mean March 2010. Current projections for SONY's console would be 9-10 million by Mar 2008 (based on Sony's plans of shipping 16.5 million units by that time) and then 9-10 million yearly after that...making the console base approx 30 million by the time GTA V comes out. Sales won't magically stop either.
As for the X and episodic content...everyone seems to see this as a MAJOR selling point...however, it is not FREE content (at least it isn't announced as such) so a person buying the 360 version must make a concious decision to invest even more than $69 into the game.
As Lao says...it is based on expectations for the PS3 and 30 million units by 2010 is not a stretch.
Just to chime in about attachment rates. On the PS2 the GTA games had attachments of (in order of release) 9.4%, 11.5% and 12.1%. I would argue that a major reason for the increasing number is the higher number of installed consoles during each successive release. Also, I think that GTA is very much a mainstream game and I wouldn't expect the attachment rate to change much in this generation...the major question is if it'll stay that way on the 360 (XB had rather low GTA sales) or the PS3.
I'm not saying that this stock is not overpriced. I think at most it will probably move 2-4 million, what I am trying to point out is that when predicting the sales of these games you have to look several years down the road, not at how the console is doing ATM.
Within 2-3 years I think it's very reasonable to predict between 15-20 million sales for the PS3.
This stock in particular, more than any other PS3 game stock, is tied to expectations for the PS3.
As long as people continue to believe that Sony is just starting slow, that numbers will pick up, etc, then the price will stay high. If PS3 sales pick up over the next 6 months, then it's justified. If not, then the stock price will stay inflated until expectations of PS3 sales are lowered.
Personally I think that too many people are thinking that GTA/PS3 will work like GTA/PS2 did, while it appears that Sony has priced out the GTA fanbase.
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