I'm just trying to figure out the reasoning people have for continuing to purchase this title up after it gets shorted down, there are obviously a ton of people who think it will sell 7 million because any time it drops below that level it instantly is bid back up again.
I'd be shorting the hell out of this if I had the cash to spare. There are big question marks over the PS3 version in terms of DLC and whether Microsoft's exclusive deal means this will be marketed primarily as a 360 title, like Assassin's got a lot of PS3 marketing.
Even without that I'd say 7m is an optimistic projection at best. To achieve that you're talking Halo like numbers and attach rates with a much smaller Western install base than the 360.
I don't think this stock is overpriced. GTA:San Andreas managed to get 7 Million sales in US alone. If we ignore Japan sales (too small), and assume sales in Europe is at least half US (if not same as US), then we got 10.5 Million WW sales, on PS2, which is 100 Million WW.
If the prediction that PS3 will get 50 Million H/W in the future, it is reasonable to expect GTA4 to get at least 50% of 10.5, or 5.25 Million sales. The increase to 6.6 Million is not to big (only 25%), so not a big difference that can warrant shortselling.
I think the GTA name is still very synonymous with the PlayStation brand, and that when GTAIV arrives on shelves, people will rather be picking up PS3s than 360s in order to play it.
That said, I will most likely be getting it on the 360 myself.
Missing the holiday season is terrible news for this game. As welshbloke said, because this is a system seller it would have been one of the main games people would have gone for to get with a new ps3 for christmas. If you look at the following weekly sales figures graph and notice that the peak for the 2nd holiday period is "traditionally" in the region of double that of the first. That is a lot of sales that GTA IV could have clung on to and it now has to rely on a big Spring period.
If it is true that it is coming out around March 08 then that may also be bad news for it. MGS is set to come out at that time too. The last thing Sony needs is 2 of it's biggest games knocking heads.
In regards to the delay of GTA IV, I would say that this could help the sales of the PS3 version. This is because the more people who own a PS3 when this game launches, the more games it will sell at launch - its that simple. Also, at this time a high number of PS3 buyers are hardcore gamers who have a very good chance of buying this game. The only thing that could be bad for this IPO is missing the holiday period, but it will probably see a boost in sales for the holiday period following its release.
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO.O: Quote, Profile, Research) on Thursday delayed its most important upcoming video game, "Grand Theft Auto IV", and warned that it would post a full-year loss, before one-time items, sending shares down 12.5 percent.
"We are very disappointed to reduce guidance after having previously reaffirmed it," Ben Feder, the chief executive who is part of a new management team at the troubled company, said in a statement, referring to the company's previous assessment, in June.
The game, which had been scheduled for release in October, is now planned for release in the second quarter of Take-Two's fiscal 2008.
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I'm just trying to figure out the reasoning people have for continuing to purchase this title up after it gets shorted down, there are obviously a ton of people who think it will sell 7 million because any time it drops below that level it instantly is bid back up again.