EricAston, I knew this stock would drop while still ridiculously undervalued too.
Probably if there was a SimExchange Japan or Europe, Halo 3 would be projected to sell a foolishly low 5M worldwide there, while AC Wii would be projected to sell a much more realistic 11M.
But I still expect the stock to rise significantly more here after more people read the discussion posts and realise that AC DS will definitely sell >10M.
I mean worldwide this franchise is currently bigger than Halo, or Smash Bros; WAY bigger than Final Fantasy, Zelda or Dragon Quest; and also bigger than Gran Turismo. The ONLY franchises that are as big or bigger now are Pokemon, GTA, and Mario. Just reading the discussion posts here can show anyone that.
So I see this game slowly rising to at least 500DKP here (which is still WAY too low), even with no new info being released.
On Gamecube, the game sold 2.5 million, with under 1 million of that in Japan. But since then, Animal Crossing DS became one of the biggest games in Japanese history. Bigger than Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy big. Bungalow Bob has presented evidence that the game is becoming similarly big in parts of Europe. Even if the Wii game sold an absurdly low amount compared to AC DS, like 2 million Japan, 1 million NA, and 1.5 million Europe, you should still be buying this stock!
ErikAsten, AC shipped much later in Europe than in the rest of the world. Nintendoīs last fiscal year was itīs first year of release in Europe, and its second year everywhere else. We know it shipped 1.76M, but since the franchise was virtually unknown there prior to release (the GC version sold 0.15M there according to VGchartz), it didnīt start off particularly strong, and slowly and steadily grew in popularity.
Over a year after release in Europe, it is the 7th best selling game in Germany (see my post 9 posts below for links for all countries), the 7th best selling game in Spain, the 5th best selling game in France, and in the U.K. it is the 37th best selling full-price game (which is about as well as itīs doing in America). These 4 countries make up about 70% of the European market (a little bit more for the DS market according to VG charts).
It will sell another 1.5M or so in its second year there. And itīll continue selling amazingly for year 3, 4 and 5 too.
In Europe right now, itīs probably something like the 13th best selling game (all platforms included). In its 60th week!
It still isnīt a playerīs choice title. It will eventually go on to sell >4.5M. Taking into account that the videogame industry is smaller in Europe than in America, and AC sales over a year after release, and Iīd say itīs popularity is comparable to Halo in America.
This series is NOT at Halo levels in Europe. I can't find the million-selling software information direct from Nintendo atm, but VGChartz WW shipment numbers, updated through N's March 07 financial report have the DS iteration under 2 million shipped in "others." 1.76 million to be exact.
Of course adjusted for population, in Japan AC on DS is much larger than Halo 2 was in America. Halo 2 sold 6 million copies in America, and AC DS will sell 5++ million in Japan alone, with well over 4 million already.
Bottom line is still the same, though: the stock is waaay undervalued. I'd put the over/under as high as 7 or 8 million.
Pentharian, even if this stock gets up to >7M by the time of release, initial sales should be high enough to maintain or increase that. In both Japan and Europe it is at the same kind of level as Halo in America, so initial sales will be huge. Also the 50% boost in Wii production thatīs just beginning will obviously help sales of all Wii software (see Wii news).
Itīll sell about 700K in Japan in itīs first week later this year, and stay >100k/week for about a month and a half. (Note: the Wii will be at about 5M in Japan by late fall 07, and selling >100k/week, when this game is expected to be released).
In Europe itīll also debut at number 1 in all the major countries and stay at the top for many weeks.
The most likely scenario is that this stock price will increase shortly after release.
Bungalo_Bob: I was just noting that when initial sales figures come in, they will likely be relatively low compared to whatever estimate we give it, and people may think that the game isn't doing well.
Pentharian, although itīs true that this game will continue selling well for several years (about 4!), for simexchange purposes it doensīt matter. Weīre predicting the LTD sales it will eventually stop at, not just how much it will sell in its first year.
Also more people are going to be able to buy a Wii every month starting next month. Nintendo is just about to increase Wii production by 50% (to 1.5M+). (see Wii news)
And Gaara42, the Wii has started off way better than the DS (even in Japan). Itīs the fastest selling system ever. For Wii sales to not continue to accerate for the next 3 years, something unprecedented would need to happen. I find that very unlikely.
And although Animal Crossing Wii will sell for $50 (until it goes Playerīs Choice), it will no doubt be THE best AC game. Expecting AC Wii to sell 6M is like expecting Halo 3 to sell 4.5M.
I think most people donīt realise that this franchise has now become almost as big in Europe as in Japan - and Europe is an even bigger market.
I wrote my previous post (the one 4 posts below) quickly - so now Iīll properly show just how well AC DS is currently selling. (see links in previous post) Itīs selling 60k/month in Japan. A little more than 60k/month in Europe (itīs selling >8k/month in Spain which makes up about 10% of European sales, and it places just as high on charts from all other major Euro countries except the U.K., where it places a little lower), and about 25k/month in America (according to VGchartz). This is during non-holiday months.
AC DS will sell another 2M worldwide in Nintendoīs next fiscal year (April 07 - end of March 08). For comparison, it shipped 3.92M during the fiscal year which recently ended. Itīs guaranteed to sell over 10M.
A ultra-conservative estimate for AC Wii would be 7M (the DS version has already sold more on just 40M DS systems). Anything less Iīd consider foolish.
I agree with Laoldar, this stock should at least rise to the 400DKP range as this game on the Wii will certainly sell more than the number that was sold on the Gamecube. On the Gamecube it was a new IP, and sold around 2.5 million copies, by the time it got to the DS it was established and sold like crazy, around 7.5 million as Laoldar pointed out.
If the Wii follows the same path as the DS, this game could potentially rise to 6 million copies sold over lifetime, as I expect the sales to be lower on the Wii compared to the DS because of the higher cost of the game and the fact that I don't think the Wii will sustain a high volume of sales over a long period of time as the DS has done.
Another thing to understand, is that like the Super Smash Bros games, Animal Crossing games have long legs, so after the initial spike when it is released, the game will continue to sell, just below the radar but overtime it will add up.
If the Wii becomes more than a fad, which is a growing issue facing the future of that console and the games on it, then this game can easily get to 6 million, as Laoldar pointed out in his last post; Animal Crossing has a high attachment ratio. I would see Animal Crossing being like the Sims for the Wii and I think that will appeal to the 'new' demographics that Nintendo seems to be focusing on lately.
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Probably if there was a SimExchange Japan or Europe, Halo 3 would be projected to sell a foolishly low 5M worldwide there, while AC Wii would be projected to sell a much more realistic 11M.
But I still expect the stock to rise significantly more here after more people read the discussion posts and realise that AC DS will definitely sell >10M.
I mean worldwide this franchise is currently bigger than Halo, or Smash Bros; WAY bigger than Final Fantasy, Zelda or Dragon Quest; and also bigger than Gran Turismo. The ONLY franchises that are as big or bigger now are Pokemon, GTA, and Mario. Just reading the discussion posts here can show anyone that.
So I see this game slowly rising to at least 500DKP here (which is still WAY too low), even with no new info being released.