Lapperscrapper: some interesting insight into your own decisions. I really appreciate that someone would explain how they blew it and lost a bunch of cash. I've made similar mistakes with other stocks: taking a position without enough research and based on how I think the market might perform instead of how the game might actually sell.
So now, as a rule of thumb I only invest based on how I actually think games will sell. That way, I only lose if my sales predictions are wrong, not if I guess wrongly on how other simExchangers might think and play the game. If I think a stock will perform vastly different from my sales expectations in the middle-term or long-term, I'll avoid taking a large position on the game at that time; I won't take the opposite position.
In this case, I thought the stock would perform different from my expectations only in the short term, ie that second day drop. But I just held on, and now the stock has recovered and should keep climbing, and I stand to make a bunch of DKP.
At first I didn't really think about the DS version. I was thinking that success on portables does not translate to success on home consoles. That is wrong, I have learned that.
Some examples: Even though the home console pokemon games are mostly mediocre, they have sold very well. Did you know Pokemon Snap for N64 sold 3.6M copies? I didn't until today.
Tetris would be the one that I would expect to only do well on portables, but Tetris Worlds sold slightly better (1.66 to 1.49) on PS2 than GBA.
Most top selling DS games have console counterparts which also have done well: Mario Bros, Mario Kart, Pokemon, Warioware, Dragon Quest.
I guess I was confusing the difference in quality and sales. Often a portable spin off from a home console game will be very poor, or the other way around.
My comment on time wasting was just experience from the first game. I tried picking up my game for 5-10 mins after I had not played for a couple weeks, and what happens is that my town is full of weeds and everyone is unhappy. To not have a crappy town you need to play regularly just to pull weeds and stuff. Maybe they fixed this in the DS version.
I have already re-evaluated my take on this stock. I still get a bad feeling about it, not sure if it will do 3+ million, but I know that I should not be shorting it. I think I will just stay away from this one until we know more details. I am still kind of new here, and learning a lot about how this stuff works. I didnt do my research on this stock.
Have you not considered the DS version at all? Only looking at the GC version ignores the extremely successful (and online...) DS version. You should have a look at the DS sales (and features of that game) and possibly re-evaluate your take on this stock.
Also, the mention of Kirby Air ride is interesting...that game was designed to be incredibly simple to play (one button controls, basically for lil kids). This wasn't due to online play, but rathe the focus of the entire title.
Also, wouldn't the "time wasting" (As you call it) properties of AC work well with the Wii? It's the kind of game you can pick up for 5 minutes if you want, play around and then save/quit...it's not going to require you to sit for hours at a time to progress.
Also, it's worth noting that AC for the DS is the 3rd (well, really the second) most popular game on their WiFi service (behind Diamond/Pearl) as of last week. A year and a half after its release, people are still loving its online component (including free giveaways for your online character).
A few comments back you asked what people shorting this stock were thinking. Since I am doing that (and loosing a lot of DKP), I figured I would explain my logic.
First of all, I don't think of this game being too different than Harvest Moon in style, though I agree the Animal Crossing series does have better quality and mass market appeal. Still, I figured that if Harvest Moon has trouble getting a stock price above 50, how is AC going to stay above 250. That was what gave me the idea to short.
My logic went further than that, though, I really am not sure if this will sell 2.5M. We haven't seen any information yet except that it will be online capable. I worry about games that mainly focusing on getting the system online. They end up being shallow with medium quality. Kirby's air ride is an example (which sold 1.5M....). I think that if they focus on remaking the CG Animal Crossing with online play, it could get the "I played that" response from most people. Also I don't see it fitting with the Wii crowd well. AC is a time waster.. a HUGE time waster, I probably put in 150 hours on the first one. I don't see that fitting with the Wii's casual attitude. Sure AC is a casual time waster, but its still a time waster. You can probably all bust me on that last point.
As I am writing this, I am thinking more about this game, and kind of changing my opinions on it. It could be cool with Mii's as characters (the guys from the first game were pretty close) and even re-doing the first game with Wii controls would probably sell well.
I guess I was just thinking that this game would be the same as the first, with Wii controls, and the ability to leave objects for your friends online. I didn't think that was deserving of better sales than the first one.
Finally, I will also admit to shorting the stock at the end of day one. IPO's typically increase for about the first 24 hrs, then decrease some on the second day, and go back up to a more normal value on day 3. I was figuring on that happening, so I thought I would get out of my short position at the end of day 2 after I made some quick cash. I figured that, even though I had a bad feeling about this stock, it was too early to predict how many it would sell, so I didnt want to hold on to it long term either holding or shorting. My plan didnt work, and I think I will be getting out of this stock as soon as I can.
While there's no fee restriction in place to prevent daytrading at below the 1 percent level, there is a considerable amount of tedium involved for what ends up being less than what you make sitting there for DKP to accumlate in your time trust. Once some automated tools are created to leverage the entire simexchange market i see this as something that may get out of control, right now we're probably just experiecing a little profit taking in preperation for the God of War release tomorrow.
The trading mechanism does inhibit day trading to some extent. True, there's no commission, but it's hard to unload a large position without driving the price down as you're doing so, which can erode any gains. Of course, when a stock gains over 50 points, that's not a huge issue. You're probably right about it being volatile right now, but the incredible gains probably caused it.
Without any form of trading fees, there's nothing preventing people from day trading every nickel and dime they can get from stocks on the exchange, and I wouldn't be surprised if that's the cause of a lot of the volatility. I think Animal Crossing is particularly vulnerable at this time since we know almost nothing about the game, including the release date. Eventually this stock should stabilize, so don't worry.
Laoldar, was I chastising any users? No I was not. I just wanted to know if any new information has come up that warrants a drop in the price of this stock, or if someone has a good reason for shorting the stock. I never said to anyone that they should hold onto a stock that is losing them money, I just said I believe that this stock is worth more than it is currently forecasted at. Many times when a stock rises there is either new information or someone post a very convincing argument as to why it is undervalued. I just wanted to see the same to see if anyone thought this game is overvalued and why; or if as Argon said on the general forum, people are just freeing up money.
All the users don't have to use such a rigid "I'm not changing my position!" stance in order to function. By focusing on making money, users will have more to invest which should move the aggregate prices closer to reality.
It's not every user's responsibility to keep the price of a stock at a certain level, so don't get all preachy when people play differently. The market will be accurate as long as each player looks out for themselves, not by chastising users for selling when you're long on it.
Since this stock is falling so rapidly, I would like to ask anyone who is shorting the stock or selling what they think this game will actually sell.
The purpose of thesimexchange is to predict lifetime sales of a product first and to make money second, which is why I have held onto my shares of this game. I firmly believe that this game will sell at least 5 million copies, you can see the argument for why if you flip back a page or two in the comments to see my reasoning. If anyone can give me a solid reason as to why this game should not be at a prediction of 5 million (500dkp) then it would clear up the reason for the large amount of selling today.
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So now, as a rule of thumb I only invest based on how I actually think games will sell. That way, I only lose if my sales predictions are wrong, not if I guess wrongly on how other simExchangers might think and play the game. If I think a stock will perform vastly different from my sales expectations in the middle-term or long-term, I'll avoid taking a large position on the game at that time; I won't take the opposite position.
In this case, I thought the stock would perform different from my expectations only in the short term, ie that second day drop. But I just held on, and now the stock has recovered and should keep climbing, and I stand to make a bunch of DKP.