-over 7.52 million sold on DS. After 76 weeks of release, it's still in the Japanese Top 20 weekly sales, so that total is actually an underestimate. -2.5 million sold on the GC.
-GC version had an attachment rate of 11.6% while the DS one has an attachment rate of about 20% (hard to tell since it's still selling so well)
Interesting to note that the GC version sold 3 times more in America than Japan, but the DS version has sold 3 times more in Japan than America. The DS version had a HUGE jump in sales in Japan and in other territories while selling about the same in America.
Using the current Wii sales projection of about 80 million and using an attachment rate of 15-20% (this really is the kind of game to appeal to the wide range of users the Wii targets), you'd get sales of about 12-16 million.
Since we're looking at lifetime sales, I would agree. However, it is going to be an extremely slow start because of the shortage of Wiis available to actually play the game on.
There are a lot of people out there that would be buying Wii games if they could get their hands on a Wii to begin with. I'm convinced that sales on Wii games would be much higher if there was sufficent supply of the console to support the current demand.
As Joe80 pointed out, AC shipped 2.49M copies on GC. And that was a port of an N64 game on a system that sold next to nothing in Europe and Japan - the 2 territories where the DS version is now most popular.
GC sold about 8.75M in those 2 territories combined. The Wii will sell more than 5 times that amount.
And itīs probably shipped more than that by now, because (a year and a half after itīs release) itīs still selling >100K/month worldwide during non-holiday months. So this game will definitely go on to sell over 10M.
Obviously at this point its hard to make a predicion, but my best guess would 10M. In part because I expect the online component to be greatly expanded upon, and also because this will be a new experience (meaning it wonīt be another N64 remake).
I agree with simulazn about the lower starting IPO price, but it should definitely be an IPO in the 1st Quarter of 2007. Its still too early to have a full grasp on the game. Nintendo is notorious for not releasing details until the last minute, but I believe that by January we will start hearing more concrete details and thus can make a more informed investment.
I think it's fair to start an IPO for the Wii AC despite the speculative nature. It's early on, but it is easy to tell by the previous purchase numbers that the game will be big, and the stock will fluctuate accordingly as details are released. I would, however, advocate a lower starting IPO price because we have so few details at this time... perhaps around 50.
12
-over 7.52 million sold on DS. After 76 weeks of release, it's still in the Japanese Top 20 weekly sales, so that total is actually an underestimate.
-2.5 million sold on the GC.
-GC version had an attachment rate of 11.6% while the DS one has an attachment rate of about 20% (hard to tell since it's still selling so well)
Interesting to note that the GC version sold 3 times more in America than Japan, but the DS version has sold 3 times more in Japan than America. The DS version had a HUGE jump in sales in Japan and in other territories while selling about the same in America.
Using the current Wii sales projection of about 80 million and using an attachment rate of 15-20% (this really is the kind of game to appeal to the wide range of users the Wii targets), you'd get sales of about 12-16 million.