I think it's pretty clear that the DS will not sell like the PS2 after the 3DS is launched. The PS2 kept selling because the PS3 cost a ridiculous $600 at launch while the PS2 was $150 at the same time. Right now, the most expensive version of the DS is $180, while the 3DS is set to launch at $250. That, combined with the highly innovative features of the 3DS will almost certainly make people much more likely to buy a 3DS than a DS. From Gameboy to GBA, hardly anything really changed in terms of gameplay. The DS added a bit more with the touchscreen, but was nearly twice the price of the GBA SP. I think there's a real appeal to the fact that the 3DS is thought of as magical by many people, and is one of the first devices ever to have 3D without glasses. I would expect the effect to be much more analogous to the Wii's launch, which was in the similar position of having really interesting, innovative features, and offering full backward capability. The gamecube didn't sell for much after the Wii was released, even in proportion to GC sales which were admittedly lower than DS sales. Additionally, most Nintendo counsels get a price drop a year after launch, which should essentially end any residual DS sales. Even if the DS sold 1 million per month from now until this predicted price drop, that would only be 13 million more, putting it around 160m. This is an overestimate, since the DS probably won't start selling more than it is now once a successor is released. And, even if it sold the most that any handheld has sold after the release of a successor (14+ million as you cite) it wouldn't even get to 165m. And, even if you think 16500 is too low, it certainly shouldn't be at 18000. This is probably the easiest short decision that I've ever seen on this website.
Maybe you are correct but I think it depends on how much longer Nintendo decide to support the system.
If they continue like Sony have for PS2, then it could possibly sell many millions more units.The PS2 has sold 43.2 million consoles since the launch of PS3 up to end of 2010.
For Game Boy, Nintendo sold 5+ million consoles post launch of GBA.
GBA sold 14+ million consoles post launch of DS.
Maybe eventual sales will only be 16500 DKP but this is not certain at the moment so shorting is risky.
I have no doubt initial sales will be strong as well so this may go higher yet unfortunately. I just don't see it logically ever truly selling 180million units as we currently predict.
Either way, I've been around long enough to play this stock as you suggest.
It's probably also true that the 3DS is overpriced. I'm interested to see how it sells, since the 3D capability is really interesting and opens up a lot of new possibilities. I'm certainly more excited for the 3DS than I was for the DS, even though I have a lot less time to play games now than I did when the DS came out. However, the way stocks go on this site is to become overinflated and then drop once it becomes apparent that the stock won't sell as much as predicted, so it's not a surprise that the 3DS is overpriced.
Would also like the point out that the 3DS is also overpriced... we have absolutely no reason to believe the 3DS will outpace the DS.
In fact, we have every reason to believe it cannot possibly keep up with the DS pace, facing even stronger competition from smartphones and the NGP from Sony
This stock is grossly overpriced. The DS has sold about 145 million copies so far. The 3DS was released yesterday in Japan, and will have been released worldwide by the end of March. As the price of the 3DS is $250 (only $80 to $100 more than current DS models) and has backward compatibility and an outstanding set of features, there will be little reason to buy a DS once the 3DS is released. Even if it sold a million units a month following worldwide release (which will absolutely not happen, and isn't even happening now) it would only be around 160m a year after 3DS release. Nintendo's price drops usually occur about a year after release, so we can expect a drop in the price of the 3DS around this point, which will cause DS sales to decline even further as more people can afford the newer, better console. The DS will probably be discontinued sometime in the year after the first price drop, and probably won't sell more than .1m per month during it's last few months out. But, we can still overestimate and say that the maximum we can expect the DS to sell is 165m total. However, remember that these numbers are huge overestimates. The DS will not sell a million a month for the next year, and the actual final sales figure will be much lower than 165m. I would guess it'll be around 152m, but even that may be a little high.
tl;dr: this stock should be between 15000 and 16500 DKP.
@Powertrade, To add to your analysis : In US, GBA managed to sell additional 11.6 Million since DS launch (Nov 2004 - Sep 2007). I believe the same thing (residue selling) will still happen with DSL/DSi/DSiLL when 3DS launch.
@Powertrade, I see no reason why Nintendo would stop manufacturing the DS line in fiscal 2011 because they are releasing 3DS. I think you will see DS Lite go down to 99.99, DSi go down to DS Lite's current price or a bit lower, and DSi XL go down to DSi's current price or bit lower. While 3DS will probably be $179.99-$199.99 at launch.
3
I think it's pretty clear that the DS will not sell like the PS2 after the 3DS is launched. The PS2 kept selling because the PS3 cost a ridiculous $600 at launch while the PS2 was $150 at the same time. Right now, the most expensive version of the DS is $180, while the 3DS is set to launch at $250. That, combined with the highly innovative features of the 3DS will almost certainly make people much more likely to buy a 3DS than a DS. From Gameboy to GBA, hardly anything really changed in terms of gameplay. The DS added a bit more with the touchscreen, but was nearly twice the price of the GBA SP. I think there's a real appeal to the fact that the 3DS is thought of as magical by many people, and is one of the first devices ever to have 3D without glasses. I would expect the effect to be much more analogous to the Wii's launch, which was in the similar position of having really interesting, innovative features, and offering full backward capability. The gamecube didn't sell for much after the Wii was released, even in proportion to GC sales which were admittedly lower than DS sales. Additionally, most Nintendo counsels get a price drop a year after launch, which should essentially end any residual DS sales. Even if the DS sold 1 million per month from now until this predicted price drop, that would only be 13 million more, putting it around 160m. This is an overestimate, since the DS probably won't start selling more than it is now once a successor is released. And, even if it sold the most that any handheld has sold after the release of a successor (14+ million as you cite) it wouldn't even get to 165m. And, even if you think 16500 is too low, it certainly shouldn't be at 18000. This is probably the easiest short decision that I've ever seen on this website.