A recent official Nintendo press release discussing the new Pokemon Diamond and Pearl Global Trade Station website puts the number of copies sold of the two games combined "in excess of 10 million".
Official Press release, posted on Gamershell.
Pokemond Diamond is the best selling video game in the US this year thus far, Pearl is #3. Both sold more than 3 millions copy's, so more than 6 millions combined.
NPD put this at 288.4 + 214.7 = 503.1K for June, a 5 week period.
VGC put this at ~557K for the same 5 weeks. If we take away the max 10% for Canada and other areas in their America zone, we end up with ~501.3K. That would show that they are fairly accurate with this game so far.
They are currently showing sales of ~105k and ~101k for the first 2 weeks of the 4 week july period:
Doubling these to make 4 weeks we get ~412k. Cutting VGC's self proclaimed minimum for other regions of 5% we get a projected sales figure of ~391.4k.
I think that just counting the NPD June figures alone it is fair to say this can only hit a maximum of ~400k.
My verdict on this is that at the current IPO short price of 44.82, there is at least 9-10% (4.82 - 44.82 * 100 = 10.75%) to be made per share on this. A clear short and easy money.
With 5.2 million in Japan and 4.8 million in the US, and a European release just three days ago, the newest Pokemon games have reached the eight-digit mark with no sign of slowing.
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