Let's look to Japan for a few hard numbers to back up my speculation. Japan is a gold mine for salesage, being at the forefront of the console gaming industry and yet geographically smaller than California, making sales accounting quick and accurate. Numbers are according to VGcharts (love it or hate it) and corroborated by MC. So far D/P has sold a bit over 5mil, and soon it will surpass the sales of Ruby/Sapphire (5,357k), which went on to ship ~15mil worldwide. In comparison of consoles (DS vs GBA), the DS has already surpassed the GBA in sales within Japan (15,855,958 vs 15,326,384)*. So there you have it.
This pokemon is the first real pokemon coming out on the DS, I think it's severely undervalued. Previous forecasts assumed DS growth to match GBA growth, but we can already see that is nowhere near reality. With the projected DS install base, there is no telling where this installment of Pokemon will go.
Well, i guess I'll just never understand how this is able to work. But apparently according to "zukaus's" article "Pokemon ships crazy numbers in japan, 5 million units within first 3 months" It'll do very well just like you guys said, but i just will never get how a population will go against common sense.
Omega, the same can be said of other games, Madden most commonly. We're not really here to debate the wisdom of crowds, per se, we're here to debate their actions. Madden sells a ton every year, and so far this new Pokemon has sold a lot as well. And I see it continuing to do so for a good while; even if the original Pokemon fans have grown out of it (many of us are high school or college-aged by now), there's still new fleets of fans who may have not played the earlier ones, and thus haven't gotten bored with "the same game again".
Well said Deltaneutral. I think what also needs to be noted is that trading volume in terms of shares x DKP value of shares is more useful to indicate trader interest than just the number of shares traded. 10,000 shares of Pokemon Diamond/Pearl traded is much more significant than 10,000 shares of Eragon (Xbox) traded.
Yea, well, you know what I meant. :P A smaller volume for this stock relative to lower-priced ones shouldn't be taken as an indicator of lower interest, just that people don't want to put significantly more DKP at risk on this stock compared to others.
I think it's important to point out here that in the world of stocks (and valuing things), "expensive" means "overvalued" and "cheap" means "undervalued." So in terms of game stocks on the simExchange, a stock is only "expensive" if it is forecasting more copies will be sold than it should.
I think what you mean is Pokemon Diamond/Pearl (DS) has a price with a large number, which shouldn't matter at all as stock prices are all relative to what they are predicting. The smallness or largeness of the number should not affect your valuation.
Google is worth the same at $500 a share vs $50 a share if they did a 10-1 split (meaning multiplied each share by 10). The value represented by the shares would be the same. In the simExchange terms, the stock would be the same if they lowered the price from 1,300 DKP to 130 DKP and said each 1 DKP means 100,000 copies sold instead of 10,000 copies sold (this would just make some things confusing if stock prices were inconsistent in their representation).
All that matters is the actual amount of capital you invest. Buying 10 shares of a 1,000 DKP stock is the same thing as buying 1,000 shares of a 10 DKP stock. You have 10,000 DKP at risk.
Just an FYI. Lemme know if something doesn't make sense and I'll try to clarify.
Regarding trading volume, perhaps the share cost is prohibitive. This is a *really* expensive stock, all things considered. If a lot of people are like me, they get less shares of more expensive stocks to help diversify. Consoles have smaller volume too, but that doesn't mean there's a lack of interest or anything.
GDC 07 has released some important information with regards to this game, especially DS connectivity with Pokemon Battle Revolution where you can upload your monsters and do battle on the Wii game.
On a side note, trading volumes are very important when gauging whether a stock has any 'legs' for you to trade upwards or downwards.
5
*These numbers fron NeoGaf