All the users don't have to use such a rigid "I'm not changing my position!" stance in order to function. By focusing on making money, users will have more to invest which should move the aggregate prices closer to reality.
It's not every user's responsibility to keep the price of a stock at a certain level, so don't get all preachy when people play differently. The market will be accurate as long as each player looks out for themselves, not by chastising users for selling when you're long on it.
Since this stock is falling so rapidly, I would like to ask anyone who is shorting the stock or selling what they think this game will actually sell.
The purpose of thesimexchange is to predict lifetime sales of a product first and to make money second, which is why I have held onto my shares of this game. I firmly believe that this game will sell at least 5 million copies, you can see the argument for why if you flip back a page or two in the comments to see my reasoning. If anyone can give me a solid reason as to why this game should not be at a prediction of 5 million (500dkp) then it would clear up the reason for the large amount of selling today.
This looks like it's going to be another "long haul" stock. I'm picking up so many of those. Animal Crossing will definitely do at LEAST better than 2x it's current price of 300. I would actually be surprised if it didn't do 3x better myself. Given the past success of the game, the fact that it appeals to all ages/genders and it being on the Wii should make this a no-brainer for any investor.
A better example would be Trauma Center, as itīs a full price game on both DS and Wii. And the Wii game has actually done a little better than the DS game (according to VGchartz). Animal Crossing DS is also a full price DS game, retailing for $35.
As for the relative sales theory, does anyone honestly think the inevitable Wii version of Mario Kart will only sell 30% of what the DS version sells? Of course not. Thinking this for Animal Crossing (which will sell >10M on DS, as shown in a previous post) is equally as foolish.
Yes, it's easy to cherry pick examples to suit your view of the stock...why not use Trauma Center? How about Mario games (both for platformers, RPG and kart)? WarioWare?
Nintendo has had many franchises that have had near equal success on both home consoles and handhelds. To use Pokemon as an example (where the one version is nearly exclusively single-player and comparing it to a nearly exclusively mutli-player version) is not a very good comparison.
I think Stitch is making a generalization of games that are selling very well on DS (mainly due to the massive installbase) and then much smaller sales on the Wii (due to a much smaller instalbase), and saying Pokemon as one obvious example.
Arguments comparing gameplay are really irrelevant as I think the point is about market size. Another example is Cooking Mama: decent sales on the DS but very low on the Wii. The games are pretty much similar. The difference in sales is coming from the differential in DS vs Wii market size.
However, given the current forecast for lifetime sales of the Wii, the differential between the two will narrow if you believe the nearly 80 million unit Wii prediction.
Stitch, you seem to be quite confused. Animal Crossing Wii is a true sequel - not some minor spin-off.
Pokemon D/P is the main game, and Pokemon BR is nothing like it. Your comparison is like comparing the sales of Mario 64 on N64, to Mario Picross on Gameboy, and then concluding that Mario games invariably sell far worse on portables.
Besides, Animal Crossing games have traditionally been on Nintendoīs home console. GameCube was fairly popular in the U.S., but did horribly everywhere else (see VGchartz or Nintendoīs Financial Reports). And in the U.S, the GameCube version has actually sold more than the DS one (although the DS version will eventually catch up and surpass to the GC one in a little over a year).
Animal Crossing is the kind of game that benifits greatly from being on a popular system, because of the community and trading aspects. And the Wii is the fastest selling system ever.
This is a main entry in a series that is among the 6 biggest in the world (see previous posts). It is bigger than Halo.
Like I said before, if simexchange were european or japanese, this game would be properly valued at >1000DKP.
I would just like to add that part of my conservatism over some of these home console versions of very popular/successful portable games is that they appear to be nowhere near the blockbusters that their portable counterparts are. Look at Pokemon. Diamond/Pearl is going to far outsell Battle Revolution.
This isn't scientific, but I would say forecasting the Wii game will sell 30% the number of a DS game is a reasonable guess.
STOP BIDDING UP THE IMAGE. The user simply did a google image search and posted the first image...if you click on the source of that image, you get news about the anime. So everyone who has been bidding up that image has been bidding up something from the AC anime movie, NOT the game.
It's annoying because when actual in-game images are posted (which will look nothing like the anime), this movie image will be at the top for a while.
I wonder why so many users up-bid on an image that the user wasn't even sure of its source...and it looks nothing like the previous AC games...and no screen shots were released for the game yet.
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It's not every user's responsibility to keep the price of a stock at a certain level, so don't get all preachy when people play differently. The market will be accurate as long as each player looks out for themselves, not by chastising users for selling when you're long on it.