Oops. Thanks Eric - I should have added Nintendogs (and also Brain Age) to the list of franchises at least as big as Animal Crossing. Thanks.
One more thing. Although 10M is what I expect this game to sell (see my previous posts for reasoning), thereīs a chance it will sell far more.
The DS version is guaranteed to sell >10M - and it is merely an N64 remake with added online features (which are very limited), and the NES games removed.
The Wii version will be brand new, and should be better in every single way - including the online component. It will also have the ability for multiple family members or friends to play using different files, and interact and trade.
It may even return to its roots and allow you to unlock a bunch of new Virtual Console titles free of charge, much like the original.
All the improvements may cause the game to once again surge in popularity, and to sell >15M.
Todayīs Nintendo is absolutely phenomenal at crafting games for the worldwide mainstream market. Nintendogs, for example, will sell 20M!
EricAston, I knew this stock would drop while still ridiculously undervalued too.
Probably if there was a SimExchange Japan or Europe, Halo 3 would be projected to sell a foolishly low 5M worldwide there, while AC Wii would be projected to sell a much more realistic 11M.
But I still expect the stock to rise significantly more here after more people read the discussion posts and realise that AC DS will definitely sell >10M.
I mean worldwide this franchise is currently bigger than Halo, or Smash Bros; WAY bigger than Final Fantasy, Zelda or Dragon Quest; and also bigger than Gran Turismo. The ONLY franchises that are as big or bigger now are Pokemon, GTA, and Mario. Just reading the discussion posts here can show anyone that.
So I see this game slowly rising to at least 500DKP here (which is still WAY too low), even with no new info being released.
On Gamecube, the game sold 2.5 million, with under 1 million of that in Japan. But since then, Animal Crossing DS became one of the biggest games in Japanese history. Bigger than Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy big. Bungalow Bob has presented evidence that the game is becoming similarly big in parts of Europe. Even if the Wii game sold an absurdly low amount compared to AC DS, like 2 million Japan, 1 million NA, and 1.5 million Europe, you should still be buying this stock!
ErikAsten, AC shipped much later in Europe than in the rest of the world. Nintendoīs last fiscal year was itīs first year of release in Europe, and its second year everywhere else. We know it shipped 1.76M, but since the franchise was virtually unknown there prior to release (the GC version sold 0.15M there according to VGchartz), it didnīt start off particularly strong, and slowly and steadily grew in popularity.
Over a year after release in Europe, it is the 7th best selling game in Germany (see my post 9 posts below for links for all countries), the 7th best selling game in Spain, the 5th best selling game in France, and in the U.K. it is the 37th best selling full-price game (which is about as well as itīs doing in America). These 4 countries make up about 70% of the European market (a little bit more for the DS market according to VG charts).
It will sell another 1.5M or so in its second year there. And itīll continue selling amazingly for year 3, 4 and 5 too.
In Europe right now, itīs probably something like the 13th best selling game (all platforms included). In its 60th week!
It still isnīt a playerīs choice title. It will eventually go on to sell >4.5M. Taking into account that the videogame industry is smaller in Europe than in America, and AC sales over a year after release, and Iīd say itīs popularity is comparable to Halo in America.
This series is NOT at Halo levels in Europe. I can't find the million-selling software information direct from Nintendo atm, but VGChartz WW shipment numbers, updated through N's March 07 financial report have the DS iteration under 2 million shipped in "others." 1.76 million to be exact.
Of course adjusted for population, in Japan AC on DS is much larger than Halo 2 was in America. Halo 2 sold 6 million copies in America, and AC DS will sell 5++ million in Japan alone, with well over 4 million already.
Bottom line is still the same, though: the stock is waaay undervalued. I'd put the over/under as high as 7 or 8 million.
Pentharian, even if this stock gets up to >7M by the time of release, initial sales should be high enough to maintain or increase that. In both Japan and Europe it is at the same kind of level as Halo in America, so initial sales will be huge. Also the 50% boost in Wii production thatīs just beginning will obviously help sales of all Wii software (see Wii news).
Itīll sell about 700K in Japan in itīs first week later this year, and stay >100k/week for about a month and a half. (Note: the Wii will be at about 5M in Japan by late fall 07, and selling >100k/week, when this game is expected to be released).
In Europe itīll also debut at number 1 in all the major countries and stay at the top for many weeks.
The most likely scenario is that this stock price will increase shortly after release.
Bungalo_Bob: I was just noting that when initial sales figures come in, they will likely be relatively low compared to whatever estimate we give it, and people may think that the game isn't doing well.
4
One more thing. Although 10M is what I expect this game to sell (see my previous posts for reasoning), thereīs a chance it will sell far more.
The DS version is guaranteed to sell >10M - and it is merely an N64 remake with added online features (which are very limited), and the NES games removed.
The Wii version will be brand new, and should be better in every single way - including the online component. It will also have the ability for multiple family members or friends to play using different files, and interact and trade.
It may even return to its roots and allow you to unlock a bunch of new Virtual Console titles free of charge, much like the original.
All the improvements may cause the game to once again surge in popularity, and to sell >15M.
Todayīs Nintendo is absolutely phenomenal at crafting games for the worldwide mainstream market. Nintendogs, for example, will sell 20M!