Pentharian, although itīs true that this game will continue selling well for several years (about 4!), for simexchange purposes it doensīt matter. Weīre predicting the LTD sales it will eventually stop at, not just how much it will sell in its first year.
Also more people are going to be able to buy a Wii every month starting next month. Nintendo is just about to increase Wii production by 50% (to 1.5M+). (see Wii news)
And Gaara42, the Wii has started off way better than the DS (even in Japan). Itīs the fastest selling system ever. For Wii sales to not continue to accerate for the next 3 years, something unprecedented would need to happen. I find that very unlikely.
And although Animal Crossing Wii will sell for $50 (until it goes Playerīs Choice), it will no doubt be THE best AC game. Expecting AC Wii to sell 6M is like expecting Halo 3 to sell 4.5M.
I think most people donīt realise that this franchise has now become almost as big in Europe as in Japan - and Europe is an even bigger market.
I wrote my previous post (the one 4 posts below) quickly - so now Iīll properly show just how well AC DS is currently selling. (see links in previous post) Itīs selling 60k/month in Japan. A little more than 60k/month in Europe (itīs selling >8k/month in Spain which makes up about 10% of European sales, and it places just as high on charts from all other major Euro countries except the U.K., where it places a little lower), and about 25k/month in America (according to VGchartz). This is during non-holiday months.
AC DS will sell another 2M worldwide in Nintendoīs next fiscal year (April 07 - end of March 08). For comparison, it shipped 3.92M during the fiscal year which recently ended. Itīs guaranteed to sell over 10M.
A ultra-conservative estimate for AC Wii would be 7M (the DS version has already sold more on just 40M DS systems). Anything less Iīd consider foolish.
I agree with Laoldar, this stock should at least rise to the 400DKP range as this game on the Wii will certainly sell more than the number that was sold on the Gamecube. On the Gamecube it was a new IP, and sold around 2.5 million copies, by the time it got to the DS it was established and sold like crazy, around 7.5 million as Laoldar pointed out.
If the Wii follows the same path as the DS, this game could potentially rise to 6 million copies sold over lifetime, as I expect the sales to be lower on the Wii compared to the DS because of the higher cost of the game and the fact that I don't think the Wii will sustain a high volume of sales over a long period of time as the DS has done.
Another thing to understand, is that like the Super Smash Bros games, Animal Crossing games have long legs, so after the initial spike when it is released, the game will continue to sell, just below the radar but overtime it will add up.
If the Wii becomes more than a fad, which is a growing issue facing the future of that console and the games on it, then this game can easily get to 6 million, as Laoldar pointed out in his last post; Animal Crossing has a high attachment ratio. I would see Animal Crossing being like the Sims for the Wii and I think that will appeal to the 'new' demographics that Nintendo seems to be focusing on lately.
-over 7.52 million sold on DS. After 76 weeks of release, it's still in the Japanese Top 20 weekly sales, so that total is actually an underestimate. -2.5 million sold on the GC.
-GC version had an attachment rate of 11.6% while the DS one has an attachment rate of about 20% (hard to tell since it's still selling so well)
Interesting to note that the GC version sold 3 times more in America than Japan, but the DS version has sold 3 times more in Japan than America. The DS version had a HUGE jump in sales in Japan and in other territories while selling about the same in America.
Using the current Wii sales projection of about 80 million and using an attachment rate of 15-20% (this really is the kind of game to appeal to the wide range of users the Wii targets), you'd get sales of about 12-16 million.
Since we're looking at lifetime sales, I would agree. However, it is going to be an extremely slow start because of the shortage of Wiis available to actually play the game on.
There are a lot of people out there that would be buying Wii games if they could get their hands on a Wii to begin with. I'm convinced that sales on Wii games would be much higher if there was sufficent supply of the console to support the current demand.
As Joe80 pointed out, AC shipped 2.49M copies on GC. And that was a port of an N64 game on a system that sold next to nothing in Europe and Japan - the 2 territories where the DS version is now most popular.
GC sold about 8.75M in those 2 territories combined. The Wii will sell more than 5 times that amount.
And itīs probably shipped more than that by now, because (a year and a half after itīs release) itīs still selling >100K/month worldwide during non-holiday months. So this game will definitely go on to sell over 10M.
Obviously at this point its hard to make a predicion, but my best guess would 10M. In part because I expect the online component to be greatly expanded upon, and also because this will be a new experience (meaning it wonīt be another N64 remake).
I agree with simulazn about the lower starting IPO price, but it should definitely be an IPO in the 1st Quarter of 2007. Its still too early to have a full grasp on the game. Nintendo is notorious for not releasing details until the last minute, but I believe that by January we will start hearing more concrete details and thus can make a more informed investment.
I think it's fair to start an IPO for the Wii AC despite the speculative nature. It's early on, but it is easy to tell by the previous purchase numbers that the game will be big, and the stock will fluctuate accordingly as details are released. I would, however, advocate a lower starting IPO price because we have so few details at this time... perhaps around 50.
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Also more people are going to be able to buy a Wii every month starting next month. Nintendo is just about to increase Wii production by 50% (to 1.5M+). (see Wii news)
And Gaara42, the Wii has started off way better than the DS (even in Japan). Itīs the fastest selling system ever. For Wii sales to not continue to accerate for the next 3 years, something unprecedented would need to happen. I find that very unlikely.
And although Animal Crossing Wii will sell for $50 (until it goes Playerīs Choice), it will no doubt be THE best AC game. Expecting AC Wii to sell 6M is like expecting
Halo 3 to sell 4.5M.
I think most people donīt realise that this franchise has now become almost as big in Europe as in Japan - and Europe is an even bigger market.
I wrote my previous post (the one 4 posts below) quickly - so now Iīll properly show just how well AC DS is currently selling. (see links in previous post)
Itīs selling 60k/month in Japan. A little more than 60k/month in Europe (itīs selling >8k/month in Spain which makes up about 10% of European sales, and it places just as high on charts from all other major Euro countries except the U.K., where it places a little lower), and about 25k/month in America (according to VGchartz). This is during non-holiday months.
AC DS will sell another 2M worldwide in Nintendoīs next fiscal year (April 07 - end of March 08). For comparison, it shipped 3.92M during the fiscal year which recently ended. Itīs guaranteed to sell over 10M.
A ultra-conservative estimate for AC Wii would be 7M (the DS version has already sold more on just 40M DS systems). Anything less Iīd consider foolish.