@apujanata, I also don't like to rely on VGC numbers - I treat them as just another prediction, nothing more. However, in this case I think there is enough data from other sources to push the price down.
US: Unknown number in its first week, then 24k over the course of the next month. (NPD, reported here.) Japan: Charted at 36 in its first week then dropped out of the top 50. First week sales of 6k. (Media Create.) UK: Failed to make the top 50 DS games. (Chart Track, see previous post.)
It's been proven that VGC can be massively off, particularly during the first month (before they can adjust their numbers to match more credible sources) and for small games. NG:DS is certainly a small game, but VGC is not working totally blind this time because US NPD numbers were available for it thanks to this site. For that reason I'd expect their estimate to be more accurate. That NPD number is key - without it I would not be confident in shorting this. Sales in Japan are likely so low that it hardly matters, but 20k seems fair based on the Media Create numbers.
I guess what I'm saying here is that although I dislike VGC, in this case I agree with them.
@Lithium, I think 90k for Europe is being very generous.
- It didn't even make the top 50 DS games in the UK charts. - Huge delay (3 months) between the US and EU releases meant there was plenty of time for fans to import it or lose interest. Plus by the time it came around NGII on the 360 was already out. - Less fans than in the US. (Because of the Xbox games, and possibly the content.)
I doubt EU sales are even close to those in the US. 30-50k would be my guess.
@Lithium, AFAIK, in general, using VGC as argument / proof for low # games (such as this one) should be avoided. VGC are widely known to be much less accurate for low # games (possibility of 50%+ error), compared to high # games.
I think it is better if you can come up with other source of # (like shipment data from publisher).
This game is listed at 110k copies sold on VGChartz. With 90k in the US and 20k in Japan. For whatever reason they do not list EU.
But lets just try this. Lets give Europe double the copies sold than the US. That is 180k copies. Now we have 180+90+20= 290k or 29DKP. This is still less than the currently listed price of 31.
But lets be realistic. Lets assume sales equal to the US, and that is maybe being generous for this game. Lets give it 90k copies sold. So now we have 90+90+20= 200k. 20dkp. And that is where is think this stock should end up.
This was released nearly two weeks ago in the UK but there's been no sign of it in the weekly charts from Chart Track. Not even in the top 50 DS games. Sales must have been really poor.
I got my first week numbers from vgchartz, and I may be wrong but I'm pretty sure they have been officially reported since they were from last month. Most of the recent numbers on vgchartz are estimates, but they usually change them once NPD reports official sales.
Also, they list Japanese sales at about one fifth as much as the US, for the first week, so I don't think they'll have too much of an impact. And I doubt that Europe will be as interested in Ninja Gaiden DS as the US is, so they should also be less influential. I'm not a psychic or anything, so I can't be sure how Europe will respond, but typically less copies are sold in Europe than in the US.
Including everything, I'm still predicting 350K at most worldwide.
Here's the VGChartz page, by the way. The most recent poster on there is predicting 200K worldwide, though they're basing their estimate on the unconfirmed numbers, which can lead to inaccuracy. I'm predicting somewhat better sales than what VGChartz has on that page, which is why I'm guessing 80K to 150K more sales than he is for the lifetime and higher sales for April.
@Demon_Gaara007, I think you forgot about Europe and Japan. If the GLS is only for US, then you are right, 55 DKP is too high. But since GLS is worldwide, I think 55 DKP is reasonable.
I've already driven the price up as much as I can without reaching the 35% limit for how much I can move into one stock. It seems like really easy money to me, though there's a slight chance I'm horrifically wrong. But really, even if I'm off with the 6-7 estimate, to cash out at 3.15 it would have to sell less in this whole month than it did in just the first week. And if you think that it will sell less than 70K this month, I don't see how you expect it to reach anything above 450K over its lifetime. Like I've said, I think the sales for this game will decrease more slowly than they do for most big name games that sell out on the first day. But I don't see it declining so slowly that the GLS could cash out at the 55 DKP that it's at right now. It would need to keep selling 70K per month for the next 7 months, which means that it would maintain the maximum you're predicting for the first full month, all the way until the end of November. I just don't see that happening.
If you think that the April future is worth 6 to 7 DKP, why don't you drive the price up ? I will set up a sell order at 7 price point. I think I can absorb up to 2 Million DKP worth of short. So, I will wait for your move.
About the GLS, I personally estimate between 36 - 72 DKP pricepoint, so I am not going to short it, and also would not buy them (as long as the price are within the aforementioned price point).
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I also don't like to rely on VGC numbers - I treat them as just another prediction, nothing more. However, in this case I think there is enough data from other sources to push the price down.
US: Unknown number in its first week, then 24k over the course of the next month. (NPD, reported here.)
Japan: Charted at 36 in its first week then dropped out of the top 50. First week sales of 6k. (Media Create.)
UK: Failed to make the top 50 DS games. (Chart Track, see previous post.)
It's been proven that VGC can be massively off, particularly during the first month (before they can adjust their numbers to match more credible sources) and for small games. NG:DS is certainly a small game, but VGC is not working totally blind this time because US NPD numbers were available for it thanks to this site. For that reason I'd expect their estimate to be more accurate. That NPD number is key - without it I would not be confident in shorting this. Sales in Japan are likely so low that it hardly matters, but 20k seems fair based on the Media Create numbers.
I guess what I'm saying here is that although I dislike VGC, in this case I agree with them.