Yes ... growth of Xbox to Xbox 360 from 24 million to 100 million is unreasonable imo.
The percentage of non US sales for MS's system is the same for Xbox as it was for Xbox 360. With the strength of the Wii (just like the PS2 vs Xbox) in those non US areas I see no reason for this to waiver other than to get worse. The Wii in the US will quickly catch and surpass the X360 in the US.
Add into the mix the 'unknown' of the PS3 (in Japan a strong 2nd, in EU catching up and in US trailing but 'hopeful') the Xbox360 doesn't have the chance to dominate ANY market like the PS2 did.
As for the numbers I'm using I'm refering to a combo of Wiki and VG but if these historical percentages were too far off I'd have Loaldar or Gaara42 correcting me pretty quick :) .
@kspraydad, would 150% be such an unreasonable growth considering xbox+ps2 converts because xbox360 did better + increased market share by marketing for more casual audiences that they're pushing for+increased population/gaming interests?
Love your data! Where'd you get the 35%? Thank you for awesome discussions!
Based on World Wide trends after 2 years on the market the X360 is selling 35% of its consoles outside of the American market.
For X360 to sell 100 million consoles you would (at current rates) need to see 65 million sold in the US alone...more than 150% of PS2 sales in the US.
@kspraydad, wow! very surprised and intrigued by your words. I had assumed xbox360 is conquering europe too, though i agree about japan and it's one of the key reasons I expect ps3 to have a lead: all the great japanese games that will lean towards the console popular in their country. But with recent success of xbox360 in the US, wide portfolio and targeting the masses do you really not think it can do 100 mil? Besides the old xbox owners and the ps2 converts due to xbox360 being the first next gen with it's present success it should continue to sell past the launch of xbox720.
@ -THE-RAY- I don't think it will be just 5-6 years except if it's only until next gen launch. I really do think that the 9-10 year timeframe is reasonable, because I also count they years after the next gen is released but the older gen still lingers on, which should easily be another 3 years IMO. More if consoles MMOs pick up (more hope with the Vivendi-Activision news, but I think it'll happen even without Blizzard)
There is zero chance in my opinion of Xbox 360 hitting 100 million (is that what you said?). There is no support of consequence in Japan. EU support is split with Wii and PS3 coming on.
That leaves the Americas. The PS2, which is the standard to measure against, only sold approx 40 million in the US. Even if the Xbox reaches this level against stiff competition from Wii and PS3, it's out of America percentage of sales would equate to 50-55 million sold.
@ixaarii,With that article i posted 'Sony Outsells Wii in Japan; EA Excited Over PS3 Sales Target'.Are estimates for the PS3 look tiny compared to theirs.Allmost 400%!.That means PS3 will sell 100million more than PS2.It sound rediculus But can it be achieved in 5-6years?
My guess it wont.Id say 150million in 10years.That would be my estimate.
For the last month I've been looking at ps3/xbox360 stock and amazed at how much better xbox360 is viewed and thought that was a great opportunity for profit as I believe ps3 will at the very least sell as much as xbox360. So for a long time I stockpiled a lot of ps3 stocks until I realized it's useless because until more success is reported (should i proove right) it may take year(s) until things start to reflect that. So thinking this is just about as useless as shorting a overvalued highly anticipated game months in advance when the hype is high and reality has yet to settle in I sold all my stock. Obviously now I'm regretting this as I see things are starting to move that way and gone are the days when ps3 would drop to 5200. Still hoping to catch an opportunity like that.
In the meanwhile I took to studying the likelihood of things going like i was anticipated and finally discovered the link i had lost on vgchartz to see compared sales with aligned launches so i am looking at ps3/xbox360/ps2 graph for approximately a two year period:
- first thought: dissapointing that with so many years in between and growth of market ps3 is similar to ps2. Still, taking into consideration the strength of the MS competition this time around and a year head advantage in building a game library and support I guess it can be excused
- the big question "can the ps3 repeat what ps2" did seems to be answered positively by this chart: a big jump in sales happens toward the second year's end, something that I expect to happen to the ps3 too, as by 2008 holiday it will have a strong lineup, i espect a lower price and I doubt consumers will miss a big title like god of war 3 (possibly ffxiii too?). This seems possible to me because as shown not only by ps2 install base but weekly sales charts ps2 still hase a huge and active base of consumers, consumers who've enjoyed the playstation platforms huge perks and who look up to sony. I believe this is a big enough pool that could fuel that bump in sales. I wouldn't be at all surprise, actually I kinda expect ps3 to sell the 120 mil consoles that ps2 did.
- all of these things do not change the huge place xbox360 has won itself in the market through the huge investments made by MS. It doesn't matter that sony had a more "bottom line profit" attitude while MS spent a lot to get here, but it's here and I doubt that will change. I expect it too will do like 100 mil and unlike the original XB won't be abandoned but will survive like the ps2 does now.
- in the meanwhile I expect the Wii graph to start decreasing it's angle of growth starting the second year quite sharply
Those are my silly thoughts. So happy and thankful for simExchange and you guys for being here to discuss such esoteric things.
@Kalibyr, The problem is exactly with the waiting. Unlike the PS2 which enjoyed a one-year lead over the Xbox and the Gamecube, the PS3 doesn't have the luxury this time around.
If people keep on waiting for the price to drop, the sizable lead in user base over the PS3 of the Wii and the 360 will keep on increasing. Eventually, game developers will avoid making games for the PS3 altogether because of the smaller user base relative to the other 2, just like what happened with the Gamecube.
with a gudging, acceptance... I personally have a xbox 360. just recently (many millions worldwide) I have bought a1080p TV.. NOw I want a blueray player... damn it, I will have to sell my xbox 360 and buy a ps3, not becuase its better, but because I want blueray! the best blueray player (most cost effective) is PS3.
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thank you! very insightful and illuminating! Much appreciated!