@deftangel,I'm done here...people are chirping in with perfectly reasonable arguments about why this stock should be going down yet it pops up every day...someone buying with no explanation is just frustrating. I'm bothering to TRY and create a 'normal' level for this stock and all I'll end up doing is handcuffing my DKP. Moving on to other stocks that need correcting that don't have resistance from irrational human investors.
I've shorted it a bit but I have almost no margin due to another astronomically over-valued stock so go figure.
I think SimEx is an idea that can work but it seems out of whack at the moment. A combination of the time trust only working one way and not enough active traders, perhaps.
I just can't believe this stock is peaking so high.
Today it just occurred to me how badly TSE is overestimating DS sales. Let's put something in perspective here.
We're predicting, (assuming 6 billion people, NOT consumers) a single DS for every 23 people on this planet. This includes people who don't make 200$ a year let alone a week.
It's hard to believe that it took McDonald's 20 years to sell four times this many HAMBURGERS (1 billion served).
This stock should be going DOWN DOWN DOWN, but then again, TSE doesn't even come close to predicting reality.
If DS is already off pace, we can assume this quarter will also not meet expectations.
Q1-3YR4 = Year 4 - Q4YR4 = 22.5 million. Q1-3YR5 (16 million) is 6.5 million off the pace of Q1-3YR4 (22.5 million). DOWN 40% in Q1-3 this year already.
I am expecting the DS to be more than 18-20% off the pace of last year. I am expecting something more in the range of 25-35% off the year's totals.
Suffice to say, once again TSE has overestimated the true potential of a Nintendo product (like sales trajectories fall off a cliff rather than curve, or something).
Ok then...found it in Wiki (all cross referenced and sourced)
Year 1 : 14.4 Year 2 : 21.2 Year 3 : 29.1 Year 4 : 34.5 Year 5 : 16.0 with one quarter left. Last year this quarter produced 12 million so it would put the year at 28 million, a drop off of approx 18% from last year's pace.
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