@welshbloke, Major Nelson : 2 million copies of Gears of War 2 that flew off the shelves over the weekend VGC : 2.1 Million day 1
Day 1 is midnight launch and Friday (1 day). Over the weekend is midnight launch, Friday, Saturday and Sunday (3 days). I am not sure whether Major Nelson consider Sunday as part of the weekend or not, but I think it included Sunday.
Do you still think that major Nelson backs VGC early predictions ?
another comment, kudos to microsoft for reinforcing their servers enough to handle the high activity i'm sure such a release with such sales would have brought to xbox live. from my experience, there wasn't a single hitch this past weekend. (other than people not being able to download the gold lancer)
In addition to the 2 million copies of Gears of War 2 that flew off the shelves over the weekend, LIVE was pretty active as well. More than 1.5 million people signed into "Gears of War 2" during the weekend, racking up a total 15 million gameplay hours and helping set a new record for concurrent LIVE players. These players also collectively unlocked more than 19 million GoW2 Achievements
@vGInfidel, I don't really mind, since I am out of short margin anyway, and I don't like letting my short margin go into red too deeply. Even if the market didn't react to our discussion, I wouldn't have any spare money to do something about it. I would have some money after Oct NPD cashout, but I am pretty confident that we would still have significant short opportunity elsewhere.
I don't mind sacrificing a little bit of potential profit for getting better knowledge, which should enable me to make better prediction in the future.
Even this stock could still bounce back to 300 DKP level, because not everyone will believe analysis of other people.
@soupsoup, Hmm. Someone have high confidence in my 2.4 Million worst case prediction and drive down the price accordingly. :D
About that 30 upbids, I believe that some people (like me) didn't upbid it because we believe that VGC # are true/accurate (in fact, lots of people think VGC # are inaccurate). Possible reasons for upbids : - signify importance of # (even though it could be inaccurate) - to get bidding bonus (since most people would upbid articles with sales #). - to made people notice it, and see the discussion within. - to thanks VGC that because of their article, people are willing to buy big amount of this future at high price. I managed to invest 700K DKP at 295+ DKP price point, which I think wouldn't have happened without VGC help. If my prediction (instead of VGC's) are correct, I must remember to thank VGC for it.
@welshbloke, I'm glad you corrected yourself! I was starting to doubt my own prediction.
I agree that the leaderboards might not be too helpful this early, especially in comparison to the leaderboards of the first game. Just this morning I read an interview with someone from Epic who was complaining about rentals and second hand sales meaning that more than twice as many people played Gears as bought it new. That would definitely affect the ratio of Live players to sales quite a bit, but is obviously less of a factor with new games. And like you said, there are the people who want to play single player first, and those who bought it just to add to their pile of unplayed games. (Okay, I'm not being entirely serious with that last one. But you know these people are out there, because every other week they get together on forums across the internet and complain about how horrible it is to have so many games.)
About the article - 30 upbids so far and counting. Seems like a lot of people trust VGC. If any of you believers are reading this, I'd be grateful if you could trust them on Ninja Gaiden 2 ;)
1
I am ever sceptical of the Day one figures but that is the closest I have seen to support these numbers.