@lstormy10, There is a rumour of Wii production increase, but no info /confirmation on the new production capacity (latest one is 1.8 Million / month).
@deftangel, The increase in sales is probably not due to an increase in Wii production - it was just the usual Nintendo plan on shifting around allocations of units among the different major territories depending on major releases of theirs.
Wii supplies could be hurt by Mario Kart. Both Europe and Japan get the title earlier than North America, so the first weeks of April could have seen lowered supplies of consoles if they were re-directed for those launches.
Even though it's a 4 week month and March was 5? The Wii is still supply constrained and I will venture that Brawl had no impact on Wii sales. The gamers interested in Brawl would know the supply situation and would realise there would be no guarentees of picking up a unit with the games release so will by and large, secured their console in advance.
My hunch is that the increase is sales is due to an increase in Wii production whereby Nintendo can now sustain sales of 150k a week. Therefore, I price the April future at 600k ish.
The counter theory to that is that Nintendo held stock back for the Brawl launch. I can't see how leaving money on the table earlier in the year benefits them at all. If they are to stockpile units, it should be for Wii Fit to reduce the chances of the more casual buyers giving up for good if they can't pick up a Wii at the same time.
From March 2007 to April 2007 the Wii sold 259k to 360k respectively, nearly 100k unit increase. Why should the increase not continue this year? Even though Brawl was released last month, it seems likely that the demand for the Wii will stay level or only drop slightly, since it rose last year by 100k, that increase in demand from March to April should offset the decrease in demand this year due to Brawl having already been released. Also it seems that as long as Nintendo ships enough units, they will sell. This stock should be more around 70DKP.
maybe it was a mistake. i mean when shorting something it is fairly easy to sell a large amount of stock e.g. 50,000 for 5dkp each, it is a simple matter of not concentrating and putting the wrong numbers in the wrong box. The system we have at the moment puts a limit on orders of 250,000 dkp but this example still falls inside it. Although obviously it will not sell at 5dkp each one, it still works, try it :)
@lstormy10, Perhaps. I do find it strange that it would drop at least as low as 36, perhaps even reaching a 50% drop rate or more; after March NPD results (especially when it was at 51 before March NPD results). Also, Wii was significantly higher than what we predicted for March, so you would think our April Future would go up a bit, not plummet.
@Joe80, I don't think it was market manipulation at all, but I think it was more of fallout from Wii March Future results being posted - causing for people to re-evaluate their positions in the Wii April Future.
Was their market manipulation using this stock (Wii April Future) on 4/18? It went from over 61 to somewhere below 36 and then back up to 59 all on that day.
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There is a rumour of Wii production increase, but no info /confirmation on the new production capacity (latest one is 1.8 Million / month).