think of the numbers, 90million consoles in the next 6 years, thats 15million a year at 1250k a month! at the moment its selling about 500k in an ordinary month. it has to almost make december sales figures every single month of the year which i just cant see happening. current production levels are lower than this at the moment and arent likely to improve much as nintendo is too nervous about overproducing which would mean the wii was in constant demand and out of stock for the next 6 years, and that just isnt going to happen.
@JoshuaJSlone, Honestly, most of my "Wii won't top 100 million" mindset is that once the supply chain normalizes, there isn't as much media coverage of the Wii feeding frenzy, and it has to be judged on it's merits alone, people won't be lining up to buy the Wii. Right now it's something of a status symbol/hyped fad. When the hype/fad dies down, I expect the sales to begin to die down as well.
For the record, I don't think that the Wii is over priced by much, 20-30% at most, but I do think it's over priced.
@feelmyring, I'm surprised they're as high as they are. Second and third place systems of previous generations got nowhere near 40 million, yet simExchange currently has both above 50 million. Is X360 doing better than Xbox? Yes. Is it doing so much better I'm yet convinced it will end having sold 140% more? Not yet. Is PS3 doing better than GameCube? Not really. So why yet think it will more than double GameCube's total sales? Yet Wii _is_ doing better than previous systems that have sold 100 million, so why think it won't get there too?
One can certainly claim "Wii will fall off, X360 and PS3 will pick up.", but it's been over a year now, and there are no indications of change in the near future. Halo 3 comes out, Wii sales rise. X360 and PS3 have price drops, Wii doesn't and still outsells them. Wii graphics continue being as much worse as they were on day one, it continues at a record pace.
Apujanata, by the end of 2002 Sony had _shipped_ 49.59 million PS2s. Remember, though, in its first year of 2000 it launched earlier than Wii did in its first year of 2007. Going by the shipment data, PS2 appears to have reached 35 million sometime around July 2002.
i dont think that the wii has the legs to sell 100 million like the ps2 has done. remember no home console has ever come close to matching the ps2's sales. the ps2 has a massive library of games with plenty of third party support and although graphically inferior to the xbox it wasnt as far off as the wii is compared to the ps3 and 360, it could still compete and many games werent any different as the ps2 was the lead console. with the wii there is such a gap developers have to make a completely different game and as seen so far most are cheap knock offs or ports from the ps2. nintendo cannot sustain a console with first party games forever.
i also think that the wii will have a short lifespan, with its next iteration within 4 years with slightly enhanced graphical power and a new and different control scheme. i know as i have a family member who is financial director of a company with stake in nintendos stock that the idea of a console with motion sensing has been in development for many years and ill bet that thats not the only thing theyve been working on.
to reach 105 million as currently predicted within even another 5-6 years the wii will need to sell 15 million a year minimum. even with a lower price point and if it proves not to be a fad the increased competition expected from the ps3 and 360 means that i just dont think the numbers add up.
@apujanata, 35 Million in two years is the point where I think that the Wii becomes less about hype/Nintendo fanboyism, and more of a viable 100 million seller. Until I see otherwise, I'm still assuming that the Wii is a one trick pony that will lose once the other two systems (especially PS3) pulls their acts together.
@-THE-RAY-, I think that if it's at 35+million by Christmas 2008, then we can start looking at 100+million, but I think until then, it's absolutely foolish for this number to be as high as it is, especially while the other two systems remain as low as they are (relatively).
When i first came to the simexchange i thought wow the wii 100million but now i think this should be higher. This proves its selling faster than the PS2 + DS Even though there prdictions are a little sketchy. Its on the news, countless articles about how its a good source of exercise,every body has it, mass shortages in its first year of release all around the world! People in my country (ireland) going to germany to get one. Does anybody agree with me that this should be 100million up?
Why is the Wii Jan 08 future still sky high ? Didn't people realized that the best # for January ever is only 490,002 for PS2 on January 2005 ?
And now we are predicting 648K of Wii sales in January 2008 ? I know that Wii is doing better than PS2 before, but I still think that this prediction is too high.
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