This stock is creeping back up over 10% over-valued territory again. There is plenty of supporting evidence to suggest this SKU is well well short of 5m and I viewed that as the top end of expectations.
I've been cashing out in the very low 500's but it's almost worth shorting again now.
I still think this tops out at 5m when all is said and done. This would put the install base in these 3 territories for PS3 around the 3m mark at present with probably another 1-1.5m or so from other territories.
@deftangel, VGC's GTAIV data : PS3 : 2.3 Million America = 2.07 Million US vs. 1.89 Million NPD = 9.5% over-estimate X360 : 4.27 Million America = 3.84 Million US vs 3.29 Million NPD = 16.8% over-estimate.
Just to back this up. NPD has given us LTD's on GTA for both platforms. 360 outsells it 2:1. PS3 version has so far sold 1.89m which means VGChartz are over-estimating this title by 20 percent.
According to Take 2 financials, GTA:IV has sold between 10m & 11m. The 360 / PS3 split won't be as dramatic in Europe but the top end of expectations 50:50 (despite 360 1m lead and larger proportion of "core" gamers) means splitting 5m down the middle.
Add in the handful from Japan and you arrive at around the 4.5m mark at absolute best. I'd say closer to 4m.
Apologies, GTA:IV sales are over 10m as August 16th according to their 3Q filings. They did not give updated guidance for their Q4 report yesterday. That would indicate to me they they haven't hit the 11m mark yet.
Regardless if Pachter is right then the PS3 SKU has't hit 4m yet.
In June 2008, Grand Theft Auto IV (PS3) sold 158,000 units including special editions according to NPD. The June future has been cashed out at 15.8 DKP.
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This stock is creeping back up over 10% over-valued territory again. There is plenty of supporting evidence to suggest this SKU is well well short of 5m and I viewed that as the top end of expectations.
I've been cashing out in the very low 500's but it's almost worth shorting again now.