@Arbiter, My 2 cents : Yes, this is a good short opportunity, IF (a big if) this game doesn't have leg. If this game have legs (like normal Nintendo first party games), then it is still a nice short opportunity, with significant risk. If this game have tremendous legs (like Animal Crossing DS), the shorting this game is a big risk.
It is up to each player to decide which legs this game will have.
December NPD has this game selling 497,000 copies. This game wasn't in the Top 10 for November, so that means it sold under 297,000 then. That gives us just under 800k copies 1.5 months after release in the US.
Take what the TSE predicts for a Nintendo game and subtract 33% to receive the actual value of a stock.
This has no chance of being more successful than AC on the DS.
Opinion blah blah blah. No different than BS projections for this title which have no basis in reality.
Many people can't be bothered with Animal Crossing (with three perfect towns I'm not one of them), and to even consider this game in the same league as a Mario or SSB title is just ridiculous. This should come down about 150-200 DKP to settle in the 6-8 million area.
Full disclosure: I've been waiting for the bottom to fall out of this one for months.
The question is: Is it enough to be a core game and from Nintendo to drive sales, or can third party take a snap.
I personal will not buy Animal Crossing (not my cup of tea) as I also not bought Brawl. Since Nintendo has not something to offer that interest me that I not own already, I did bought two 3rd party games (Zack & Wiki, Boom Blox). I think the "low" of Nintendo "high" profile titles does not necessarily mean that those coming sell more, it is more a chance for third party to sell more. You just need good titles, Call of Duty 5 is one of those who could steel the show on the Wii, imho.
Yeah I agree, Pikmin is probably not coming this year. But I don't think it really would affect Animal Crossing sales one way or another. Animal Crossing will likely stand on its own merits.
@zukaus, I had just submitted the game 2 minutes before your comment & then worked on the article, I did not notice your comment until just now. Given that there really is no info on the game provided from Nintendo I believe it will probably not be in 2008. At this point I don't know of any other major Nintendo 1st party title in 2008 besides Animal Crossing, so I'm feeling that it might sell more. I'm still hesitant at this point though.
@Joe80, I would believe that there would be another game at least from Nintendo directly to be had at holiday time for core gamers. By sound of it (it equals interviews with Nintendo people like Miyamoto), they are holding off until TGS or another games convention to show-off the rest of their goods.
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My 2 cents :
Yes, this is a good short opportunity, IF (a big if) this game doesn't have leg. If this game have legs (like normal Nintendo first party games), then it is still a nice short opportunity, with significant risk. If this game have tremendous legs (like Animal Crossing DS), the shorting this game is a big risk.
It is up to each player to decide which legs this game will have.