Dead Rising is not an eccentric game. Have you actually played it? The game may have a couple quirky elements, but it did not come from a studio known for that and its presentation was itself very mainstream.
My figure of 25-50DKP "is unfounded and just your opinion"? Of course it is my opinion, the whole point of this site is pitting people's opinions against one another, I have just based my opinion of several pieces of data I found and a general feeling about this game and how it will do. I would not call my opinion 'unfound' as I have several pieces of data that I base it off of (data from CNN, vgchartz and Capcom themselves).
You tell me "Please don't take offense by this" and then blatantly neglect my opinion and arguments (many back up with data) and tell me that they are "plain wrong"? I will take offense because, even if I disagree with someone, I don't tell them that their opinion is "plain wrong". Such disrespect is not needed in this debate, attack the ideas or what is being said, not the person.
"Nearly everything you've written about this game has been circumstantial at best", really? I cite figures of Killer 7's sales and you call them 'circumstantial'? I cite Psychonauts sales, a game which was highly reviewed and seen as a step forward, much like this game seems to aim to be, and you call them 'circumstantial'? I cite Resident Evil 4 numbers even to back up my claim as to why it did well on the Wii, yet this is 'circumstantial'? I do not understand your logic, both you and RabiesBaby have claimed that my argument has no basis, yet neither of you have any links to data backing up your points.
Psychonauts is cited because it is from a developer,Tim Schafe and co., that is known for his games that push the envelope, much like Suda 51. The similarity is in the niche focus of the developers (even if they intend to reach a larger audience).
RabiesBaby did use Resident Evil 4 to disprove my argument, but I provided reason as to why this game sold so well was because it had such a respected pedigree behind it, whereas this game does not. That game was hyped and already was set to sell well (much like Metroid Prime 3 with its hype, though it sold below thesimExchange's expectations). I doubt that No More Heroes will get the kind of hype or respect that Metroid Prime 3 or Resident Evil 4 got respectively.
"This game will be viewed as the Grand Theft Auto that’s okay to like." That is word-for-word what RabiesBaby said. He says that it will be viewed as the Grand Theft Auto that is okay to like, that sounds like a comparison to me. Much like saying "Splinter Cell will be viewed as the Manhunt that's okay to like" (comparison in terms of their stealth elements and the fact that one was successful and the other was not as), this would be interpreted as comparing the games and saying that one will be liked more.
You attack the basis of my argument, and the conclusions that I draw from it, yet offer no counter to my conclusion. You attack me personally, conduct that is no conducive to a health environment on the exchange, while never citing figures (as I have) that refute my claims. This game should be between 25DKP and 50DKP.
Thank you, you said that 100 times better than I could have.
You were spot on with everything you said. The only thing I would like to add is that some people may see some similarities between NMH and GTA, but I also think that NMH won't have the negative stigma attached to it like GAT does.
Jeez and I was determined not to get back into this argument, as it is pretty pointless. I don't think anyone can make a really good argument for why this game is going to succeed or fail.
Firstly to defend RabiesBaby's post, and apologies to Rabies if I misinterpreted anything. The 2 million figure presented, was presented after stating that it was a blind opinion. Rabies also never made a direct comparison between RE4 and NMH, rather the comparison was to disprove your 'hardcore games will not sell on the wii' argument. Also Rabies never stated that NMH was the next Grand Theft Auto, rather that people will see the similarities between the two games.
Your counter argument, that Killer7 only sold 2,315 copies in Japan, is as far as I can see, based on incorrect information. I can only assume that you got that figure by adding the three sums under 'Launch Sales'. What you neglected to mention was that these three figures were taken from the Japanese charts dated May 27-June 10, 2007, which is pretty much two years after the game was released in Japan. Add this to your dubious Psychonauts "sales figures", and you can't help but see a slight flaw in your argument
I have never played Beyond Good and Evil, so I can't really compare it to NMH. But from what I've played of Psychonauts, I can quite confidently say that NMH will be nothing like Psychonauts, at all. I don't think it is even fair to compare the two. Your whole argument is based on the fact that most people don't like eccentricity in games. What about Dead Rising, that game had quirky elements, and gameplay more akin to NMH, and that has sold way in excess of a million copies. Well it might be convenient for me to say "ZOMG Dead Rising and NMH are similar, this game should be 150DKP." I will reserve my thoughts on what NMH will sell, because to be perfectly honest, it could just as likely fail, as it could succeed.
Please don't take offense by this, but nearly everything you've written about this game has been circumstantial at best, and just plain wrong at worst. Which leads me to believe that your figure of 25-50DKP is unfounded and just your opinion.
Killer 7 didn't sell that well. As with Capcom's series of games for the Gamecube, it was ported to the PS2 due to sales worries. And while I think it was one of the more original games I've played, it's definitely a niche product, not something that many people would love. No More Heroes will likely follow this pattern.
Games like these tend to be critic's darlings, but low sales.
2 million? Do you have any justification for that number? My post don't contain many facts? Take a look at this one. It shows how Psychonauts only sold 100,000 copies with a link to the CNN article sourced from.
The next Grand Theft Auto? That is a very large claim and you, in no way, back up that claim.
You claim that Killer 7 sold a decent amount of copies, do you have anything to back up that claim. Vgchartz says it sold 2,315 copieson the PS2 in Japan.
"Everyone who owned Killer 7 will also purchase No More Heroes." That is a ludicrous statement. That is assuming all the people who bought Killer 7 also have a Wii and also will like this game, something that is near impossible. Also, looking at the game's sales in Japan, that would mean No More Heroes would actually do pretty bad.
Resident Evil 4 is not a good comparison, it was one of the best reviewed games of the last generation and is part of a well established series (where as Psychonauts, the game I provided as proof, was in the same position as this game). Also, people who already owned Resident Evil 4 wanted to experience it with motion controls so they picked it up.
Regarding the 'waggle' controls, many people were hoping this would be one of the first games to utilize the Wii controls for lightsaber type action, where you could actually control the movement of the blade. This game will not be doing that so some people who would have bought it now won't.
Look at Metroid Prime 3, we expected much higher sales from the game but it turns out that there are not as many players willing to pick up these types of games as opposed to Mario Party 8, which has sold much better than Metroid Prime 3. Again, Resident Evil 4 sold better than expected because it already had a huge positive word of mouth and sales numbers of previous versions behind it.
Looking at all this, I think it is clear why this game should be no higher than 50DKP. Killer 7, from the data found so far, sold terribly in Japan (and presumed not much better elsewhere, to the eccentric nature of that game). No More Heroes also does not have a huge positive word of mouth or having a legacy name behind it (ala Resident Evil 4). It is also a new game with interesting ideas that might get good reviews but will probably fail sales-wise (much like Psychonauts). There are many other reasons in this and my previous post, so I will conclude.
I think your "analysis" is a little off there buddy. First and foremost I'm not 100% sure we read the same GameSpy article. After actually reading the article it appears that substituting boring and way overused waggle controls for a button press is a positive aspect of the game.
Also, I thought it was rather humorous that you've already decided that the Wii isn't for the "type of players who would pick this up." How many copies of Resident Evil 4: Wii Edition have sold worldwide??
Since both of your posts do not contain facts of any sort then please allow me to also speak my blind opinion. Killer 7 sold a decent amount of copies and that was a horrible "on rails" game. Everyone who owned Killer 7 will also purchase No More Heroes. This game will be viewed as the Grand Theft Auto that’s okay to like. I think that Wii owners yearn for something different that doesn't involve sloppy waggle controls. This game will go on to sell at least 2 million copies worldwide. Good day.
Also, if you read here you see that the player does not actually control the beam sword as many had hope but rather just use the A button to initiate attacks. I think that this further hurt the chance of this game being any real success. Hence, this title should be in the 25-50DKP range.
This game still seems to be overvalued by at least 20DKP. As pointed out here and in the below post, this title seems a bit too eccentric to sell over 500,000 copies. I am not sure if this is riding on some type of hype (I doubt so) or whether people are taking the post (in various game forums) of people who think that this looks pretty sweet (not saying that they would pick it up), but either way, this game will end up like most titles that try something new, especially that this is being released on the Wii, a console that does not cater to the type of players who would pick this up.
Also, there is a fair chance that this will end up being review badly, that it turned out to be very artistic and had some cool game mechanics, but ultimately it does not hold up beyond the first hour of play and the fundamentals (such as camera and a balanced/deep battle system) are missing. If this happens I see a likely chance that this title will drop even further to around 25DKP.
Hence, this title should be in the 25-50DKP range.
While I agree with some of your points, I pointed to Psychonauts and Beyond Good & Evil of games that even though they were less eccentric than No More Heroes will be, they still did badly at retail. Originality and the first to be in a particular genre for a console do not guarantee retail success. Because of this, even though I think that this game will be one of the few really original games for the Wii when it is released, I think this will actually hurt it as only 'hardcore' gamers will pick it up. Due to this (and reasons stated here) a price of 50DKP or less seems like a more accurate price.
Ugh, that teachs me for picking up a decent stake in a stock, way before the game is released. I suppose I should try to justify why I think the game this game will have decent sales.
While I think it would be great if NMH(No More Heroes) got the same critical accaim, as Psychonauts and Beyond Good & Evil, I personally never really factored it into what I thought the sales figures would be. I think that the comparison between NMH and these games, are slightly dubious. Firstly, there is the difference in genres, that being "Sandbox" style games tend to appeal more to casual gamers. Also, just based on a quick glance at their wikipedia articles, it seems that these games were not released in Japan.
In the end, I see NMH selling well because it is an original exclusive wii game, which won't be facing much competition within its genre when its released. While NMH seems to be shaping up to be somewhat eccentric, I don't see this hurting sales too much, as interest in this game seems to transcend its abnormality.
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First, I did not add the sales figures from the launch, I took those figures from the number next to the game after I searched under Japanese sales (it gave that number). United States numbers are not present on the site, I will try to find them.
Looking at Capcom's annual reports, for 2005 and 2006, you find no mention of Killer 7, though titles such as Viewtiful Joe 2 sold 350,000 copies and Resident Evil Outbreak File #2 sold 230,000 copies. Onimusha Dawn of Dreams only sold 640,000 copies. I doubt that Killer 7 sold more than Viewtiful Joe 2, Resident Evil Outbreak File #2 or Onimusha Dawn of Dreams, all from series with a large pedigree.
Dead Rising is not an eccentric game. Have you actually played it? The game may have a couple quirky elements, but it did not come from a studio known for that and its presentation was itself very mainstream.
My figure of 25-50DKP "is unfounded and just your opinion"? Of course it is my opinion, the whole point of this site is pitting people's opinions against one another, I have just based my opinion of several pieces of data I found and a general feeling about this game and how it will do. I would not call my opinion 'unfound' as I have several pieces of data that I base it off of (data from CNN, vgchartz and Capcom themselves).
You tell me "Please don't take offense by this" and then blatantly neglect my opinion and arguments (many back up with data) and tell me that they are "plain wrong"? I will take offense because, even if I disagree with someone, I don't tell them that their opinion is "plain wrong". Such disrespect is not needed in this debate, attack the ideas or what is being said, not the person.
"Nearly everything you've written about this game has been circumstantial at best", really? I cite figures of Killer 7's sales and you call them 'circumstantial'? I cite Psychonauts sales, a game which was highly reviewed and seen as a step forward, much like this game seems to aim to be, and you call them 'circumstantial'? I cite Resident Evil 4 numbers even to back up my claim as to why it did well on the Wii, yet this is 'circumstantial'? I do not understand your logic, both you and RabiesBaby have claimed that my argument has no basis, yet neither of you have any links to data backing up your points.
Psychonauts is cited because it is from a developer,Tim Schafe and co., that is known for his games that push the envelope, much like Suda 51. The similarity is in the niche focus of the developers (even if they intend to reach a larger audience).
RabiesBaby did use Resident Evil 4 to disprove my argument, but I provided reason as to why this game sold so well was because it had such a respected pedigree behind it, whereas this game does not. That game was hyped and already was set to sell well (much like Metroid Prime 3 with its hype, though it sold below thesimExchange's expectations). I doubt that No More Heroes will get the kind of hype or respect that Metroid Prime 3 or Resident Evil 4 got respectively.
"This game will be viewed as the Grand Theft Auto that’s okay to like." That is word-for-word what RabiesBaby said. He says that it will be viewed as the Grand Theft Auto that is okay to like, that sounds like a comparison to me. Much like saying "Splinter Cell will be viewed as the Manhunt that's okay to like" (comparison in terms of their stealth elements and the fact that one was successful and the other was not as), this would be interpreted as comparing the games and saying that one will be liked more.
You attack the basis of my argument, and the conclusions that I draw from it, yet offer no counter to my conclusion. You attack me personally, conduct that is no conducive to a health environment on the exchange, while never citing figures (as I have) that refute my claims. This game should be between 25DKP and 50DKP.