There's only 145K difference between VGC's current sales estimate of 577K and the current projection of 722K, and the game sold 14,600K last week--its 18th week on the market. Its weekly sales have actually increased the last 3 weeks straight, after slipping below 10K.
I think its going to continue holding up well and pass the current projection.
This game is part of a trilogy. The other two games in the series will cause increases in sales through indirect advertising and new fans of the series wishing to play the first game in the series (this). That probably won't be enough to push this game up to 740K, but looking at how long other games (New Super Mario, Brain Age, Yoshi's Island etc.) have stayed in the charts, it still a possibility. Something like 700K would be more accurate, though, at least until we get a better bearing of how long this will stay in the charts.
Updates on Layton. It's at 19th place on this week's chart for JPN (courtesy of Media Create). By my guess work in association with VGCharts, that's about another 10K or so, give or take 1,000. Total should be around 520K-530K right now. It's still on track to hit 600K, but 740K is probably still out of reach without any western release.
According to vgcharts, this game has already sold 500K+ in Japan alone. That's another 230K to go before meeting the current price. If the current shipment of 20K/week stays the same (unlikely), that would take another 11 weeks. That's the optimistic view. But given the performance of the last 3 weeks, it's possible.
I think the next couple of weeks will be curcial for this game. If it can stay above 20K/week, 730K total is doable, even in Japan alone. If not, it will probably sell around the 550K - 600K range (as mentioned by some of the comments below). That would leave a 130K deficit. If the rumour of an English translation is true, then it should fill up that gap.
The legs should continue there in Japan as it's shown no sign of stopping to be honest.
It very easily could reach its current sales target in Japan alone over the next few months. With a US release seemingly eminent, I'd say this is most certainly a strong buy.
I put the IPO at 75DKP before any sales had come in, based on how many copies retailers ordered for the 1st shipment and what Level 5 anticipated (see the discussion about that on pg.2). I had priced it at 75DKP with USA sales in mind (included). It looks great in JA, it just depends on how other territories accept it.
I certainly agree that 550k-600k in Japan is doable, but if the game never left Japan, we'd still be in for a 15 DKP drop. Right now the stock could be a good buy with that assurance met, but there is the question if such a game will be picked up by American gamers.
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