@zukaus, Sure it charted 47 but look at the sales of the game that charted #10, only 11,000. So Prof Layton & the Mysterious Village is probably selling ~5,000 or less per week.
Layton only did 91k in FEB. It will likely top out at 200-275 dkp in NA. You say it could easily sell much more if its sales in NA match its JA long legs. However, this game is more geared to JA demographic and it is based on books that are very popular in JA. People in NA & EU have no idea or knowledge about the books this is based on.
You're saying it will likely get bumps when its sequels are released. If you mean JA, that's not going to increase sales much. The first sequel was released in NOV, so the bump is already there. When the last game releases, the 2nd will be more likely to get a bump than the 1st. If you mean NA, this game is not selling well here. Even if the sequels do come to NA, they're not going to have much if any effect on Layton's sales in NA. The first game will likely not even be available by the time the sequels release here.
EU sales will likely be the same as NA sales. So 200-275 dkp. Add JA sales & the likely sales in NA + EU, and you have a figure of 1.3-1.45 dkp. I was long on this stock for ~year, I've been following it since well before it released in JA & submitted it to the site for listing. But when I observed its sales more recently in JA & figured in its NA debut, I went from long to short.
I don't see this reaching over 1.5 dkp, and much more likely to be in the range of 1.3-1.45 dkp.
Professor Layton has never stopped selling in Japan. It charted yet again on this week's Media-Create charts at #47, almost a year and 4 months after its release. This games seems well on its way to 1 million+ in Japanese sales.
I also believe a 300k lifetime total in the US seems quite reasonable given the 91k it already sold. It could easily sell much more if its sales match the long legs of the Japanese. It will also likely get the same bumps as its Japanese counterpart whenever its sequels are released. Additionally I believe European sales are likely to at least match American sales and possibly a lot more given their love of the brain training series.
So I continue to hold my long position in this stock and I see very little downside especially at the current price of 160 DKP.
@zukaus, One other thing, I am also reminded of Studio Gibli movies when playing this game. I need to purchase more movies. I currently own only 4 - 5 Studio Gibli movies.
Yeah, I also finished this game, and could hardly wait for the second one. I solved 133, and only 2 more to go (didn't download the additional puzzle yet).
The 2nd game are going to have the puzzle more tightly integrated to the story, as promised by Level 5 CEO in an interview.
If you don't mind, are you willing to share your thought / opinion on the current GLS price ? There was a difference of opinion between other Top 25 member (Joe80, pilias_simber) and me. If possible, I would like to hear other opinion.
Wow, I just finished this and I have to say this is a really excellent game. If you enjoy puzzles and brain teasers you must check this game out. This game oozes style and reminds me a lot of some Miyazaki films. A charming story and fantastic music also add a lot to this game. If you can get past the fact that the puzzles are only very loosely connected to the story this is perfect for any problem solving fan, a 10 in my book.
@pilias_simber, I agree this needs to drop. Only sold 91,000 in its first 3+ weeks in NA, Japan sales have flatlined (its been out for over a year there) & the sequel has already been released for many months (last NOV) with the next sequel arriving soon. I'd expect this to top out at 1.275-1.425 dkp.
I have put a long order of 6000 share at 131 price. Anyone willing to take them ? (it doesn't have to be pilias_simber). That is all the spare money I have, without getting into red short margin area.
If you think that this GLS should go down, please short this stock, so I can buy them up. 20% discount from current 163 price (=121) should be nice. I am willing to max out my networth on this stock (even though I was burned on this future).
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Sure it charted 47 but look at the sales of the game that charted #10, only 11,000. So Prof Layton & the Mysterious Village is probably selling ~5,000 or less per week.
Layton only did 91k in FEB. It will likely top out at 200-275 dkp in NA. You say it could easily sell much more if its sales in NA match its JA long legs. However, this game is more geared to JA demographic and it is based on books that are very popular in JA. People in NA & EU have no idea or knowledge about the books this is based on.
You're saying it will likely get bumps when its sequels are released. If you mean JA, that's not going to increase sales much. The first sequel was released in NOV, so the bump is already there. When the last game releases, the 2nd will be more likely to get a bump than the 1st. If you mean NA, this game is not selling well here. Even if the sequels do come to NA, they're not going to have much if any effect on Layton's sales in NA. The first game will likely not even be available by the time the sequels release here.
EU sales will likely be the same as NA sales. So 200-275 dkp. Add JA sales & the likely sales in NA + EU, and you have a figure of 1.3-1.45 dkp. I was long on this stock for ~year, I've been following it since well before it released in JA & submitted it to the site for listing. But when I observed its sales more recently in JA & figured in its NA debut, I went from long to short.
I don't see this reaching over 1.5 dkp, and much more likely to be in the range of 1.3-1.45 dkp.