@Just_Ben, 1.4 Million is only 2.8% of 50 Million (Joe80's current worth). When I am sure of something, I usually dare to invest 10% of my networth.
Of course, Joe80's position is a little bit weak, due to the fact that : - going short on GLS is usually more difficult than going long on GLS. - one of the supporter of long position is Zukaus, whose networth is very big. - margin for profit is not big enough. His estimate is 135 - 145 DKP, and current price is only 20% higher than 145. Usually when shorting GLS, I tried to find those that are at least 30% - 40% higher, unlike going long, which only require 20% margin.
Joe80, I would suggest shorting other more interesting GLS stock, like Gears of War 2. (Disclosure : I am shorting GoW2 significantly). I think Zukaus would agree that GoW2 is a safe bet for shorting at its current price (907 DKP).
@Joe80, As I understand it, your post is : End of Week 3 : 91K. End of Week 6 : 130K.
"40,000 in its week 4 - week 6 (3 weeks period" translate to 13K / week in US. With 5K / Week in japan, and maybe 5K - 20K / week in Europe, I can still see it hitting 162K DKP GLS (my original prediction). It may not get 1.62 Million in 2008, but I am sure it will get 1.62 Million in 2009.
I stand by my prior prediction.
If you really believe that it should be way lower, you could short them again. As I stated before, I will only buy this stock when the price is right (131 DKP, which is 20% discount from my 162 DKP estimate, since I need at least 20% profit margin before investing in a stock).
Was that number after or before NPD released their numbers? There have been occasions when vgchartz would change their numbers after NPD releases their monthly figures to make their's look more accurate than they previously were.
@apujanata, Just want to add that VGC pegged this game at 91,000 in its first 3 weeks, which is identical to actual NPD sales for its first 3 weeks. VGC now has it only at 130,000 after its 6th week. Only 40,000 in its 4-6 week on sale. I stand by my prior prediction.
All you're actually downloading is a code to unlock puzzles which are already on the game cartridge -- essentially meaning that there's a set number of puzzles on the game (162, to be exact).
GoNintendo discovered a supposedly complete list of the game's riddles to back up this claim. You can check out every single puzzle featured in the game, and even choose to sneak a peek at every solution as well.
I see that your estimate is a little bit on the pessimistic side, while my estimate is a little bit on the optimistic side. We will see who is right in the next 2-3 month.
I currently only have 600K DKP tied up /invested in this stock. When the price is right (significantly below current 172 DKP price point), I will invest more. At the current price point, I will not invest more (I prefer to invest those money somewhere else, with more profit percentage).
Well, our opinions differ, and as they say that's what makes a market. I believe my estimates are quite conservative and 1.6 million is the minimum that this game will sell worldwide. However, it's obvious you disagree.
We could argue all day about how things like sequels and culture would affect sales but I believe I've already accounted for everything that you've mentioned in my estimates. It doesn't look like anything I've said is going to change your mind and my opinion too has not wavered since your last post, so let's just watch and see how the sales numbers turn out. I am especially looking forward to seeing European sales. Good luck.
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You sure have time, a long time until you will profit (if ever). Isn't call of duty 4 in that region (sales wise?)