Retailer GameStop has begun receiving advertising materials, posting window displays featuring a February 10 release date. That's the same drop date we heard from a KMart employee earlier today. That puts the "cobalt blue" DS street date in sync with the domestic release of Professor Layton and the Curious Village for the portable, both of which should benefit from the side-by-side release.
The game looks to be extremely extensive with several dozen puzzles in the adventure, and then the extra puzzles that'll only be available when you hop online with the system. In all, there seems to be several hours of gameplay in Professor Layton's first adventure in the US.
@Joe80, I have changed the wiki-date to February 10th (the date it ships/is released) for the U.S. because multiple sources all say the 10th (IGN, GameStop, Kotaku, etc.).
"We already know that Professor Layton, who's making his long-awaited Western debut next month, will be released in the US on February 10. In an official fact sheet sent out today, the European version of the game will also be out on February 10. Same day. Earlier, even, what with time differences and all."
@apujanata, Indeed, it is all speculation. I base myself in several personal appreciations, some are based on facts and some speculation while others are pure speculation.
1. I have followed the Layton game at Media Create and noticed it has stayed in the Top 30 for several weeks, occasionally jumping (like 17th this past week). The game received a bump that is still lasting after the second was released (it was not in the top 50 from September 17 to November 11, then appeared 47, 44, 42 and then jumped to 24 the week the second part was released, then 31, 30, 48 on the week before Christmas, then 25, 25 and last week 17), and I think they both will get another bump when the last part is released. With just 4k per week in average it will break the million this year. Note that in Amazon the game is still going with just 8% off (virtually full price).
2. The DS has a record of selling twice as many copies of casual games in Europe than in North America (Brain Age, Nintendogs, etc). With Layton at 800k in Japan, and a current stock of 1.6m here, it means it needs 800k in Europe and North America combined to reach that base: 266k in North America plus 534k in Europe. With 1m in Japan alone, it means 200k in North America and 400k in Europe alone.
3. The game is aimed at a wide spectrum of players, not just hardcore gamers, and that always gives me a plus, especially when dealing with DS and PS2 games. Most of the puzzles are logic ones, which can make this title to be included as a "high end" Touch Generation! game. The title name is not violent like Assassin Creed, which makes it appealing with parents, and has the "Harry Potter and the ..." format. While superfluous, I think that gives the impression to the casual player that there will be sequels (gamers know there are sequels, but moms and dads do not), something necessary when you are working without a Mario or Sonic in the title. And the graphics have that Hayao Miyazaki feeling, making it appealing for parents to buy. It is a game both parents and children can play at the same time.
The most similar games I can think of are Touch Detective, Hotel Dusk and Phoenix Wright, but none of those were as successful in Japan as Layton, making a comparison moot. Games that appeal to the casual market are always underestimated (who thought Carnival Games would sell 500k?).
You can go here http://www.famitsu.com/game/rank/top30/1213053_1134.html (please copy and paste the list to your browser, since you could not just click on it and see the page), and you will notice that in #24, is Prof. Layton 1, at 791563, as of Jan 6, 2008.
There is a possibility of it reaching 1 Million, but it is not certain. It depend on whether Layton 2 made people buy Layton 1.
The problem is predicting US & Europe reception. I think your estimate of Europe is too high. As of today, it is too early to say that it will be a success in US & Europe. Unless you can point to other DS game in the same genre (puzzle) that are proven successfull in US or Europe to point of proven audience.
Wait 2 more months, and we should be able to gauge how successfull this game will be in US and Europe.
@Gaara42, I know I am replying to a very old comment, but what the heck. Personally, this stock is (three months later) undervaluated. The game has surely reached 800k by now, and keeps ranking between the 30 top games of Japan. I believe it should reach 1 million by end of this year selling just 5k per week. I think US would give between 400k and 800k, and Europe could give 1.5m to 2.5m in a year. The current price of 150dkp is, personally, what will get in Europe alone. Even the February 12dkp appears to be low.
Unfortunately, we don't have more data than showing both games at around 800k and 700k respectively in Japan alone.
This may be releasing a week early. I didn't change the Wiki date because Nintendo has an older posted date of FEB 18, so I'm not 100% sure the FEB 11th date is correct, but it very well could be.
This game is undervalued, it continues to sell in Japan and has currently sold 679,676 copies. It looks like it will top out in the 700,000 range in Japan. This game is getting a US release, so that will most likely add around 400,000 copies as this looks like it will become a sleeper hit there. Add to that the likely possibility that this will get a European release, which would probably add around 100,000-200,000 copies and this game is undervalued. It should probably be around 120DKP.
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