If I'm not mistaken, the stock is meant to reflect the lifetime sales of a game. If you are only taking account of present day sale figures, it is pretty obvious that this stock is overpriced. However, considering how highly rated this game is, it seems likely that people will be buying this game long after its release. With no new regular Resident Evil games announced for the Wii(no disrespect to Umbrella chronicles), I also don't see RE4 being made redundant anytime soon. It is also not hard to imagine that this game could be seen as a must have title for the more serious gamers. As it is, the SE is forecasting the Wii to sell over 100 million. Considering the success of this game so far, there is also a very distinct possibilty that it will become a "Player's Choice" game. Given all the possible variables, I'm personally staying away from this stock, as it could really go either way.
Oh and the only reason why my profile says I'm bullish on this stock is because I've kept one share for months, as a means to monitor action.
Someone had posted a few months ago that publishers actually will take back copies of games that don't sell after a while. Is this true? If it is I could see some of these copies of REWiiEdition being taken back by the publisher.
What I meant was that it was our most accurate guide back then before this 750k figure came out. Just like VGChartz when they are the only figures available for some of the games, there's no choice but to put some trust on their numbers.
We might have a misunderstanding. I think their 750,000 shipped is accurate. What I meant was that their early estimates of 420,000 for the fiscal year was probably conservative for a reason and players shouldn't use those early numbers as a guide for a title that hasn't been released yet.
Like the VGChartz issue, I think it's much better to rely heavily on a publisher's own estimate than anyone else's, don't you think? They may not be correct all the time, but it's something, and it's definitely a something that is better than VGChartz.
@Just_Ben, Again, the only territory the game is selling well anymore is NA, and even then, it didn't even reach 100k for July. With the influx of big games on the other consoles, I can see an even bigger reduction in monthly sales.
The game may reach 750k sold, but when? By July, it sold around 250k in NA, 100k in Japan, and possibly 200k in PAL regions. August is the end of the summer gaming drought with Bioshock and Metroid Prime 3 and NFL. It will be miraculous if RE4 sold 100k this August. And then there's Halo, and Mario, and Smash Brothers, etc. RE4 will be forgotten under the barrage of these blockbuster titles.
Well shipped means sold sometime. So we can expect at least 750k sold. The problem is, that we don't know the numbers for others exactly, but i would consider 750k shipped means 650k sold WW at least. Looking at the US, i have no doubt the game will last after Christmas, and at the current rate it should be a million seller (WW) by then.
Their fiscal estimates are for shipments as well remember. My point was just that players shouldn't be so quick to predict based upon conservative numbers listed in a company's financial press releases.
@Laoldar, We have to consider, though, that this is shipment numbers, not sell-through numbers.
If I remember correctly, the game has dropped from the PAL and Japanese charts already and really only selling well in NA. If the game still charts decently on the August US NPD then it'll have a chance to reach near a million sales, but right now, I still have my doubts.
Remember back in July when people were saying the stock price should fall because of their conservative fiscal targets? Something to consider the next time a company releases expected numbers...they can be off by a great deal.
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Oh and the only reason why my profile says I'm bullish on this stock is because I've kept one share for months, as a means to monitor action.