Agreed, also agreed that it does not reach RE or MP3 levels, but if you lock at both they pulled 200-400k in their first month (including Canada, subtract 10%) if you look at 4 weeks (VGC).
And it won't sell like those, we both agree to that, the question is, how much will it sell? You say below 100 thousand, I say it will be higher than 100 thousand, and 120 is very very near that I would predict for it. I predict that it will have a really really good first week (>70k) and then drop, hard and big and will be near dead after 4 weeks or Christmas. I can't see doing it more than 200k lifetime U.S.. I think the lifetime stock is way more overvalued than the future. 500k would sound way more reasonable to me.
Manhunt is a different level of violent than either Resident Evil 4 or Metroid Prime 3 (if you play the original Manhunt you see why). Because of this I think it would turn off people who buy 'violent' games for the Wii (though I wouldn't really call MP3 'violent' in the same sense as I would call RE4 or Manhunt 'violent). I would buy both Resident Evil 4 and MP3 but I have no intentions of buying Manhunt, that type of violence does not interest me.
Your Madden analogy proves my point though, its sales were split due to competition and Manhunt will encounter much more competition in November than Madden 08 for the Wii did during August. To answer your question, I would buy Madden 08 for the Wii not the Xbox360 (and I know people who bought Madden 08 for the Wii first so they could try the motion controls, then maybe pick up the Xbox360 version later), so the answer is not quite simple. Another reason why it might not have sold well is not because you could buy it for the Xbox360 or PS3, but because there is a smaller audience of gamers who buy adrenaline games for the Wii.
To answer your RE4 question, I bought it for the PS2 instead of the Wii, even over the so called 'better' controls (not everyone likes the Wiimote).
If you can find any kind of sales numbers for Manhunt my opinion might be swayed, but of current I can not see this game selling more than 100K during the month of November.
Yes RE is more popular than Manhunt, but RE:4 was the fourth port of the game. It wasn't RE:5. All I'm saying is that violent games can sell on the Wii, and games can sell on the Wii quite nice. You can't take madden (a absolute multi platform game) and hold it again Manhunt. It doesn't fit. Just think of it that way: If you have a 360 and a Wii, for which platform do you buy madden. The answer is quite simple. If the controls are nice done on the Wii and you can buy it for the PS2 and the Wii, which platform would you prefer?
Again, you provide games that have an active fan base, their predecessors have been lavished with praise and have gotten more real hype (not just publicity) than Manhunt.
That game did not have numbers in the "actual sales" column when I was looking through the blog post, so I did not include it, if it had I would have.
Resident Evil 4 is much more popular and respected game than Manhunt; and has a larger audience and more hype than Manhunt (people want to buy it because they know it will actually be good). Resident Evil 4 was touted by many as the greatest game of the last generation. Will Manhunt receive the same recognition or praise? I doubt it (the first one didn't) and therefor I do not think that it will be able to get even close to Resident Evil 4 levels.
Manhunt for the Wii does not have the benefit of its predecessor (or versions for past systems) being so highly praised. Resident Evil 4 also sold 2 million copies for the PS2, so the Wii version had a large audience to reach who either weren't able to pick it up for the PS2 or wanted to experience it again for the Wii with new controls.
Resident Evil 4 (PS2) average rating: 95% Manhunt (PS2) average rating: 77%
I still think this will sell 100k or less during the month of November.
Or MP3, which moved 218 k, in 4 days? You compare Madden, Mario Party and Strikers to a violent game to proof you point, but you left out the violent games that exist. OK, they are not that violent than Manhunt 2, but if you want to compare something than at least apples to oranges than apples to eggs.
Just because a game gets attention (not necessarily hype) does not always translate into game sales, especially on a system like the Wii were there might be less people inclined to follow game industry news.
Madden 08 for the Wii had most of August to sell, yet it only managed to sell 115,600 copies. Madden 08 has much more hype, is much more popular and has a larger audience than Manhunt, but it only managed to sell around 100k.
Mario Strikers Charged for the Wii had all of August to sell and it only managed to sell 147,400 copies. Mario Strikers Charged is also a game that is more popular and has a larger audience than Manhunt, but it only managed to sell 150,000 copies during the month of August.
Big Brain Academy for the Wii had most of June to sell yet only managed to sell 89.8K. This game fits the supposed Wii crowd more, has a larger audience and is more accessible than Manhunt, but it only managed to sell 89.8K in its first month, keep in mind this was during the summer months when there is much less competition.
Looking at all those past Wii games, I do not think Manhunt will be even able to reach the 100k sales mark. It has a small audience, it does not have any real hype (people don't get excited to pick up a game that has just been rated AO) and it is being released during a time when there is a lot of competition. From all these things I do not think this game will reach the 100k mark and so this Future is currently overvalued and should be closer or below 10DKP.
I disagree. It has full 4 weeks. I think it is undervalued, even if it has heavy competition. Only 100 k in such a time in US in 4 weeks does mean 200k lifetime, can't imagine that after the hype through the AO rating.
This future seems overvalued at the moment. Even if this turns out to be a good or decent game, it is being released for the Wii at the beginning of holiday season. It will either get lost in the crowd or people will pick up Super Mario Galaxy, Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games or whatever new games are being released instead.
I think that this game's predecessor had a small niche/audience when it was released on the PS2, I think on the Wii that niche/audience is even smaller and that due to this the game will only sell around 100k (10DKP) in the month of November.
2
Agreed, also agreed that it does not reach RE or MP3 levels, but if you lock at both they pulled 200-400k in their first month (including Canada, subtract 10%) if you look at 4 weeks (VGC).
And it won't sell like those, we both agree to that, the question is, how much will it sell? You say below 100 thousand, I say it will be higher than 100 thousand, and 120 is very very near that I would predict for it. I predict that it will have a really really good first week (>70k) and then drop, hard and big and will be near dead after 4 weeks or Christmas. I can't see doing it more than 200k lifetime U.S.. I think the lifetime stock is way more overvalued than the future. 500k would sound way more reasonable to me.