@vGInfidel, I see. I mis-read your intention, sorry for that.
IIRC, I have never said that 7 million for GoW2 is not feasible. What I have said is not feasible is the 1 Million + prediction. Up until a few days ago, this stock remained at 800 - 900+, even though many people predicted 720 max for it. People have shorted this down, but it keep on returning to 800-900+ price point.
In fact, I was a little bit surprised that the price of this stock didn't return back to 900+ yesterday. Seems like the downward pressure is bigger than the upward pressure, at least for now.
i think you have taken my posts slightly differently from my intention. i fully realise that doubling the userbase does not mean doubling the sales and i also know that there is a saturation point for marketing effect. im also not saying that being exclusive means that it is going to sell over the total amount of a multiplatform game, GTA4 for example could sell 15million if it was a 360 exclusive, but as it stands current predictions put the combined at 20million. (overestimates)
im saying that they are factors that Gears of War 2 has going for it that CoD4 does not and that still managed to sell 6million copies so far (estimate) on 360 alone, with 200k sales a month continuing in US alone. my point is that 7million for gears is not unfeasable, im not saying that it will reach this figure simply dont dismiss the possibility.
I believe that you think that : - massive marketing helped sell game - multiplatform lowered game sales on a certain platform - lower install base = lower sales #.
I believe that : - marketing help sell games, but only up to a certain level. There is a "point of diminishing return" or "saturation point", in which a very high marketing $ is needed to bring a small sales increase. - the fact that a game is multiplatform or not does not necessarily affect sales, except as total. Mario & Sonic Olympic games as Wii exclusive does not necessarily mean higher sales compared to M&S as Wii, PS3, X360 games. Otherwise, all game would be released as exclusive, not multiplatform. - It has been proven over and over that doubling the user base does not equate to doubling the game sales. I think a lot of people does not realize this
i wasnt aiming that post specifically at you, it was for everyone, i just hit reply to the top post without thinking :)
Yes the change in setting obviously helped to drive sales because it meant the game became alot better for it and it generated new interest. But CoD3 was nothing special and the majority of gamers who brought it knew this. They didnt know this through reviews or who developed simply that the game wasnt that good meaning their expectation would have been lowered for CoD4. Maybe its not a great comparison but that wasnt the main point of my post.
The main point was that CoD4 has proven that games other than Halo can sell in this region on the 360 despite being multiplatform, without the higher install base and without a massive ad campaign. Something that could drive GoW2's sales even higher.
@vGInfidel, I wasn't the one to state that 7.5 million is Halo Territory, I merely stated that a day last week the Gears 2 GLS went above the Halo 3 GLS, which I believe will not be the case.
Also, comparing sales of CoD4 versus previous installments and Gears 2 versus previous installments is not similar in the fact that CoD4 was changing up the series from a different, overused setting to a newer setting (creating more buzz and purchases).
CoD4 was building on the strong foundation of CoD2, not CoD3. CoD2 was released on the 360 and was from the same developer as CoD4 - many people knew not to expect a ton from CoD3. In addition, CoD3 was not rubbish and was rated in the 8's by most publications.
@vGInfidel, I wasn't the one to state that 7.5 million is Halo Territory, I merely stated that a day last week the Gears 2 GLS went above the Halo 3 GLS, which I believe will not be the case.
Also, comparing sales of CoD4 versus previous installments and Gears 2 versus previous installments is not similar in the fact that CoD4 was changing up the series from a different, overused setting to a newer setting (creating more buzz and purchases).
CoD4 was building on the strong foundation of CoD2, not CoD3. CoD2 was released on the 360 and was from the same developer as CoD4 - many people knew not to expect a ton from CoD3. In addition, CoD3 was not rubbish and was rated in the 8's by most publications.
Let us not forget that 7.5mil isnt "Halo Territory" its CoD4 territory. Halo has sold more than that already and i expect it to come in well above 10mil at final count i.e its undervalued at the moment.
Gears of War2 and CoD4 (will) share similar qualities i believe. - Both are shooters that will/have receive critical acclaim. - Both (will) have a good, but short, single player and are multiplayer focused. - They are both relatively hardcore and appeal to a mature audience.
Gears of War2 also has a number of factors working in its favour. - MS will launch a massive advertisement campaign on a Halo scale - It is not multiplatform - 360 will have a higher install base by then - Building on very strong foundations, CoD4 didnt really as CoD3 was rubbish.
im not saying that this game will sell 7-8million copies or whatever, just dont take it as impossible. The main claim i have seen is that GoW only sold 4.5million so how can it double? Look at CoD4, how many copies did CoD2/3 sell worldwide?
@Jonman, But you also forget the fact that the first Gears did not have that much competition on the 360 when it was released. Gears 2 will be facing a ton more competition when it is released.
So here's a thought that occurs to me whenever I hear people talking about 7.5mil being 'Halo territory'.
Fact is, GoW2 will be launching a full year later than H3, and that means a bigger install base to draw sales from. Off the top of my head, that's going to be 3-4 mill more 360s in people's home. Given that the attach rate of a premium franchise like Gears is likely to be high, that traslates as more potential sales.
I'm still undecided on where Gears 2 will fall in sales, but it's not inconcievable that it'll get near this mythical 'Halo territory'
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I see. I mis-read your intention, sorry for that.
IIRC, I have never said that 7 million for GoW2 is not feasible. What I have said is not feasible is the 1 Million + prediction. Up until a few days ago, this stock remained at 800 - 900+, even though many people predicted 720 max for it. People have shorted this down, but it keep on returning to 800-900+ price point.
In fact, I was a little bit surprised that the price of this stock didn't return back to 900+ yesterday. Seems like the downward pressure is bigger than the upward pressure, at least for now.