Leaderboards are not really going to help here. The game is to new. Yes this is a big multiplayer title but it is also a single player title and most will want to experience that before venturing online.
They may never revisit it but it will provide the all important training and understanding for the online game.
Unlike MGS4, GOW1 has sown the seeds on this platform already and GOW2 with a larger install base and largely top end reviews will do very well and I am sure it will make the 3 million copies predicted by us currently for the NPD. As for its pre-sales unless Microsoft boast about we only have VGC predictions. I am not a fan of the VGC early predictions especially as they rarely are backed up by a second party.
I have invested small money (1.5 Million DKP) shorting this one, since I am quite confident that I am going to win big on this one. My worst case scenario is 2.4 Million for Nov NPD, and my target price is 2.0 Million.
Well i can clarify that they are worldwide as i am on them :-) (im not very high though, i loved GoW1 online (20,000+ kills) but i absolutely hate this one for matchmaking).
I find it laudable that mrstickball thinks that there could be over 3million in 2 days, that would mean only about 30% of people have gone online with it. Does he really think that 2million people brought this game for 10hours of single player? (Horde would be rubbish on 4 player split screen).
The number for GoW on 360 is under 5 million i believe, around the 4.7 mark. The claims of over 5 million are normally including the PC version, i think VGC number is plain wrong (suprise, suprise). So if we take 4.7/2.6 = as a rough ratio, and apply this to the 530k on GoW2 Execution leaderboards you get just under a million.
Now its probably unfair to apply this ratio quite so low because games get passed between friends and more people would have played more gametypes on GoW1 so the spread between them is less. But even being generous i should think that the figure for GoW2 is less than 1.5million, and im fairly confident in saying that. How sales will go between now and the end of the month is the thing holding me back on going massively short on the future, ive set a 1million barrier at 310dkp price point though.
@vGInfidel, It should be interesting to compare GoW leaderboards with Halo 3 leaderboards ? Is there a centralized (official) H3 leaderboards ? I googled it, but didn't see any bungie official leaderboards.
Comparing GoW2 leaderboards with GoW leaderboards, currently GoW have 2.6 Million players, which is about 50% of VGC's # (5.29 Million). Please take VGC's # with a pinch of salt.
I agree with you that first week sales are probably 1.5 Million. (3 x 500K player). The only question (for me) is whether that 1.5 Million is US only (like VGC claimed) or WW (like what you suggested).
Thanks for the leaderboards link. Is the leaderboards WW, or US only ? It is probably WW, but I am not sure.
If what you predicted (1.5 Million first week WW, probably 1 Million first week US only), the VGC really goes overboard with it's estimate.
Interesting note from article's comment, with interesting parts bolded : mrstickball (note: mrstickball is the author of the article) says: Dmeister - Yes, these are ioi-approved numbers.
I've argued since yesterday that it sold around 1.4m on Day-1. ioi's first batch of pre-elim numbers put it right around that (1.2-1.4m), but the next few batches including Europe put it around 2.2 or even 2.3m on the first day. However, we went a little bit more conservative with 2.1m.
Truth be told, it could wind up with 3.0m in 2 days, but we're trying to lower expectations so it isn't another MGS4.
Now, 3 days after release you will see a little over 500,000 players on both Warzone and Execution as well as about 200,000 on each of the other gametypes. Now a VERY large majority of these will not be individual players. Alot will be the same players who have played different gametypes.
The best indicator is to look at Execution and Warzone as at least 90% of people who have played online would have played one of these gametypes. Now combined that adds up to a million, and the true number of individual players is probably much lower than that, i would estimate in the 700k region or below. Leaving a large margin for error i would assume that no more than 1million individual players would have played matches online. Now considering VGC is claiming about 2.5million sales by now (Day 3), for an online focused game to only have a maximum of 40% of playeres go online when it can be assumed that at about half of 360 owners have Live anyway means it just doesnt add up. For those without Live this game can be completed in a rental easily so theres really no need to buy it.
Also the "user polls" mentioned as a source as you suggested also alarmed me when i first read it.
Overall, given the evidence i think this is just another case of VGC throwing out wildly over the top numbers based on little evidence to create a story and get a few more hits.
First week sales i would estimate are at about 1.5million, maybe lower.
I missed this article, so didn't comment on it earlier, and didn't change my investment strategy.
I don't like this part "and user polls" of the VGC article text. I don't understand why user polls have to be taken into account when determining first day / week # ?
@vGInfidel, Do you have link to leaderboards for those who don't have X360 (like me) ? Screen capture should be sufficient. Is the leaderboard WW, or region specific ?
Is it possible that most of those who purchased GoW2 hadn't gone online yet (still finishing the offline part of the game) ? Since I didn't play GoW nor GoW2, my question might seem silly.
LBP should have longer legs compared to GoW2. I hadn't done any analysis on their GLS, but I am short on both of them (LBP more than GoW2).
U have to give the game credit, (hype, marketing etc.) This and fable 2 (already long gone) are really the only games that will be snapped up come Christmas. Gears has no real competition hence the massive sales. VGC could be wrong, but i don't think its off by too much, Gears is MS new Halo. This game might even cannibalize L4D sales.Without Gears though for 360 this Christmas, i don't know where it would be.
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So, do you still think that 3 Million for Nov NPD is achievable ?