I don't think the marketing is dependent on Microsoft acquiring Epic at all, certainly wasn't for the first game. That got massive marketing. So will this. They've already shown that if need be MS are willing to dump the marketing spend into their guaranteed bet (Halo 3) and leave the other titles (PGR4, Mass Effect) with comparatively little.
If as it seems, Sony really start to build hype for Resistance 2 and/or Killzone 2 it could turn into a bit of a marketing arms race.
I don't see Microsoft buying Epic this either for that matter.
@pilias_simber, Yeah, Microsoft acquiring Epic before the release of this would mean Microsoft probably putting some cash into marketing (hyping) this title at Christmas time and before then.
700DKP or 7 million copies sold would be at the upper end of my estimate, since it seems that the competition from other brands (such as the Tom Clancy games, Call of Duty and others) will outweigh the amount of people who already own the game picking up a sequel or others who have played or heard of the first game picking up the sequel.
Though from Halo: CE to Halo 2 we saw an increase in sales, I view the Halo brand as being much more popular and at the time much more instilled in the conscious of gamers who bought the Xbox, since at the time it was much more of a system seller than Gears of War and it was on a system (at least from my observations) that was owned by more people who tend to play shooters, in other words it had a narrower demographic of people who owned the system. The Xbox360, as deftangel said, seems to be appealing to a wider range of consumers, for this reason I do not feel that Gears of War 2 will garner the same high attachment rate, as less of the people now are early adopters and from my observations less of them tend to play shooters and if they do, only few play Gears of War as opposed to Call of Duty 4 or Rainbow Six Vegas.
For these reasons I think a range of 600-725DKP seems reasonable, though that estimate could be revised (most likely lower) as new information on this game and the competition is released.
I think 950 is way too high. We're talking Halo 3 like sales for that to happen and the install base is supposedly broadening as it's getting bigger. I don't think Gears 2 can command that level of attach rate though undoubtedly it will outsell it's predecessor.
I think 6-7m is a decent bet for GLS and I was willing to buy at 5m and sell at 8m.
Will Gears of War 2 outsell Gears of War or by the time the sequel is released will the amount of other competition, compared to when Gears of War was released, decrease sales and cause the sequel to fall short, commercially, to its predecessor?
This is a hard question as I think the increased install base really helps and the amount of people who already own Gears of War will probably pick up the sequel, while their friends who now own an Xbox360 and have played someone else's copy of Gears of War but are waiting for a sequel before buying a game in the series could cause this game to have higher sales numbers than its predecessor.
But it is possible that Gears of War had a launch title like aura surrounding it, in that it mostly had the field to itself and set the bar so high that it became the de facto game to buy for new Xbox360 owners. So when this game is released later this year, it will have to compete against more AAA titles (both known and unknown) than its predecessor and this could potentially siphon off sales.
The recent successes of Call of Duty 4 and Assassin's Creed would help put more weight on the idea that if you put enough marketing muscle behind a title and it turns out to be a quality title, that it can still dominate a competitive market during an extremely competitive time.
Due to Halo 2 outselling Halo: Combat Evolved and Halo 3 set to outsell Halo 2, I think it is likely that Gears of War 2 will push 6 million+.
At Microsoft’s GDC 2008 keynote address, the rumors circulating the Internet regarding Gears of War 2 were finally confirmed by Cliffy B himself—who chainsawed his way on stage. While we weren’t able to get a glimpse of the game itself just yet, we were treated to a stylistic teaser trailer for the game. Earlier in the keynote, though, there was also a tech demo of Epic Games’ latest Unreal Engine 3 features, which helped us form somewhat of an idea of what’s to come in the Gears franchise.
Microsoft and Epic Games has officially announced, in their keynote speech at this year's GDC event, that Gears of War 2 is slated for a November 2008 release for the Xbox 360.
Check out the teaser trailer after the jump.
1
I don't think the marketing is dependent on Microsoft acquiring Epic at all, certainly wasn't for the first game. That got massive marketing. So will this. They've already shown that if need be MS are willing to dump the marketing spend into their guaranteed bet (Halo 3) and leave the other titles (PGR4, Mass Effect) with comparatively little.
If as it seems, Sony really start to build hype for Resistance 2 and/or Killzone 2 it could turn into a bit of a marketing arms race.
I don't see Microsoft buying Epic this either for that matter.