@Just_Ben, What will you do in the future, since there is no future anymore ?
Will you short GLS ?
Or are you going to invest in metacritice (the only variety of future still available for investment) ?
@Laoldar, I don't see other option to getting money other than shorting GLS. Of course, it is up to each person whether they dared to short popular stock or not. But the biggest potential of gaining big profit is in those popoluar, overpriced stock (and their higher risk).
The problem is not about investment opportunities...the problem is that people keep buying up stock and forcing the prices back up. With the demise of futures, we'll hopefully see a change in this trend, but shorting a popular stock hasn't been the best move.
@sagexsdx, I think that this kind of stock is a big opportunity for those Top 5 Lifetime. They have so much money, they must be having difficulty finding stock to short. Especially since now there are no more futures they can invest on.
I'm thinking something like this : Let the price of this one go even higher, say to 1200 DKP, or even 1500 DKP, and I only starting shorting them on that price range. As I said before, 1000 DKP is my target, and I might even moved them to 1200 or 1500.
As VgInfidel said, we can only expect a "bubble burst" on Januar 2009, which is a long, long way from today.
I've cleaned out my shortage today, so those sudden increase to 1000 DKP is caused by me.
well, pard'ner, i guess i might be the man fer the job. yep. have been roaming these parts here fer a while. =)
yeah i've been short on this for a while. have a decent amount invested. i know i'm not really gonna gain anything in the short term but i got in at a pretty high price (a decent percent higher than the current one).
This is a stock you have to be willing to go with for a very long time as it probably wont come down until January, almost a year away. Early good sales will probably push it even higher, even though they will be too low to reach the current levels. Which is exactly why im not even thinking of taking a serious position until October time unless it reaches ridiculous proportions (11mil+).
Going in short this early on a game is almost suicide, especially with a popular one such as this. Most of the more experienced and wealthier traders know this and so leave it well alone so the less inexperienced players who are more likely to be bullish have free roam to push the price to ridiculous proportions.
If TSE is to go in its new direction of focusing more on predicting rather than tracking then this mentality has to change. Yet it needs several of the top 100 players to really start shorting early and to make money to show that it can be done so more people are likely to follow. Whoever does though is taking a big risk and thats what puts people off trying.
I am considering withdrawing my short position and spending the money elsewhere on stocks that will more easily move to a reasonable price based on data available, past and current trends, and other factors. Even with ample evidence that this game will not achieve the current predicted price, as outlined in: Comment 1, Comment 2, Comment 3, Comment 4, and others if you look in the previous pages, it continues to remain at astronomical levels.
The current price is in the Halo 3 (biggest entertainment launch of all time) and Call of Duty 4 (multiplatform, best selling game of 2007) levels for a game that does not have near the brand strength and fan loyalty of either Call of Duty or Halo (recall Call of Duty and Call of Duty 2 were well loved and respected by both PC and console fans, Halo's brand strength need no be discussed). Looking at how well Call of Duty 4 and Halo 3 sold, around 8.3 million and 8 million respectively, would seem to put a dampner on expectations of sales for this game, especially when the nearest game that was single platform, stand alone game (that was on a console) to sell below these two was Super Mario Galaxy at 4.1 million (North America + Europe, Japan won't buy Gears of War 2 in any significant numbers). This game appeals to both the hardcore and casual, where as Gears of War 2 will not have as large an audience as Super Mario Galaxy does. I believe that Gears of War 2 will probably sell more than 5 million copies, but its style limits its scope, such as not being able to sell in Japan.
Also, as you rightly said here, doubling the user base of a console does not necessarily mean that sales of the sequel of a popular game will double, if that reasoning was correct then Vice City and San Andreas should have sold 20 million +, yet they did not. Many people stop using their consoles after awhile, some buy a new one as new models are released, etc.; so doubling the number of console sold does not necessarily mean doubling the potential consumer base.
Furthermore, Gears of War 2 has to compete with franchises (many growing in strength after previous outings) such as Rainbow Six Vegas, Ghost Recon, Call of Duty (which has once again become a premier FPS franchise, COD5 could impact sales), Halo (this game could impact sales, remember people will continue to play this game and Call of Duty 4 for a long time), and various other FPS games announced and yet to be announced.
Due to all these factors, and several not listed here, it seems reasonable to price this game below 700DKP.
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What will you do in the future, since there is no future anymore ?
Will you short GLS ?
Or are you going to invest in metacritice (the only variety of future still available for investment) ?
@Laoldar,
I don't see other option to getting money other than shorting GLS. Of course, it is up to each person whether they dared to short popular stock or not. But the biggest potential of gaining big profit is in those popoluar, overpriced stock (and their higher risk).