yes and thats 60M over it's lifetime of anything up to 5-7 years. This game is being introduced into an install base of no more than 10-12M. Unless it's one of those games that just keeps selling for years it will not get near 5M.
The "general consensus" should be the DKP price but there's always going to be that element of inaccuracy when people join and buy a game's stocks just because they like the game and not because they think it wll sell good. This leads to plenty of games being overvalued just because of their name or brand. By the time MGS4 is released, it will need an attach rate of over 50% if it wants to meet the 5M we're predicting here. I'm sorry if i sound like a jackass here but a 100DKP drop is the consensus among those who have thought this through.
This stock is still overvalued by at least 100 DKP
It looks like it went down last night and it heading upwards again today, so it's currently an excellent shorting opportunity for anyone not already in on it!
I still think we agree. My logic is this: The majority of those who bought MGS3 are hardcore players, thats the only way I can explain such a low adoption rate for a AAA title like MGS while 120 million systems are out there.
Likewise I expect PS3 sales to pick-up, and that at least 4 million metal gear players plan to buy a PS3 for this game if they haven't already.
I only stated that I believed 350 DKP to be too low since I have no reason to believe this game to under-perform the last Metal Gear title. I still feel and 400-450 DKP to be about right. I was merely observing/gaming the pendulum swing of the resulting correction.
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Exactly, hence my prediction of 3.5-4 million total sales over it's lifetime.