@kspraydad, Thanks kspraydad. One of the more enjoyable discussions I've had recently, a little heated yet respectful. Informatable in general, and informed myself in the process!
I'm excited about this Metal Gear Saga 2.0 DVD bonus, which is yet another thing that will help sales. I don't have PS3 but I may get now preorder this game just to get that bonus!
I was saying 2.5 million of the bundle alone if EA/Activision estimates of US BASED SALES for the PS3 in 2008 hold true. They both estimate around 5 million consoles for the US and if the ratio remains 50/50 that would be 2.5 million bundles.
If there is a price drop on PS3 this year I would expect it to happen in tandem and the relative price difference to remain.
I'm long on this expecting approx 5 million lifetime sales due to this bundle announcement. (And crossing my fingers I'm right!)
@pilias_simber, I interpreted him saying 2.5 million for the bundle & the estimates I made with the ranges were for MGS4 sales from the bundle. 10 million hehe, where do you get that # from did someone put an order to short at 10 mil?
@Joe80, funny I've been saying 4 million to 4.5 before the bundle news. With the bundle news I would agree with you, about 5 million is probably about right. 6.5 million or 7 or whatever it's at now is still to high, and 10 million is still stupid high.
@Joe80, Thanks for letting me know. I believe you based on past behaviors. I also misread that statement. I thought KSpray was saying an automatic 2.5 million copies of the bundle, not total game sales. I think 2.5 million is at least within the realm of possibility by Christmas time, though I think some sales will be snuffed out by Gran Turismo prologue, Gran Turismo, GTA IV, Little Big Planet, and FFXIII, all of which launch this year as well. If MGS4 was the only high profile title like past MGS games were at the time of launch I could see it doing a little better, but game competition is much higher these days, good games get snuffed out because you see a ton more of them than in days past, and theres more choices in consoles now than you have in the past as well making it even harder for game sales on an exclusive title like this.
@pilias_simber, A. I don't think we will be able to say for a long time, that's all I can say. B. Some fraction, can't say.
But MGS2 sold about 1 million more than MGS1 did. So right there you had a million people buy it who did not own MGS1.
What I mean by this is that the same can happen for MGS4, i.e. people buy it who did not own previous MGS games, probably can happen to even a larger degree than in the past given the hype surrounding MGS4, the momentum PS3 has, the fact that Dual Shock 3 & GT 5 Prologue are releasing right before MGS4, & they are actually bundling MGS4 in with consoles. That is a lot of upward pressure on MGS4 sales!
I'm still not in this stock because I was not sure about a precise sales point & unfortunately I would've jumped in it but I was too busy this week when the bundle news came out. However, I think 7 million might be too high. I'd guess more around 4.5-5.5 million right now.
@Joe80, OK what if we think about this from another angle. The PS3 does not have the install base the PS2 did, nor is it likely to ever match the PS2 in total sales. The 360 and the Wii are both stealing customers from Sony, the only question is how many will they steal.
How many people who in the past purchased MGS 2 will either A: own a Wii or a 360. or B: not purchase a PS3 and/or not purchase MGS4.
Based on the continued low software sales despite the rise in hardware sales I would say a significant portion of teh PS3 owners are buying it for it's BD capabilities and not purchasing it to buy games.
Are we really expecting this game to do just as well or better than MGS 2, as the current price is stating this game will perform?
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I'm buying the pack with all 3 of the older games and running through them before I play 4.
I've only ever played one of the 3 and never finished it so it'll be 'fun'.