They might prefer to only have one disk, but is having to switch disks a big enough annoyance to stop people from buying a game? Historically this has not been true, I see no reason why it would be in the future.
Just because 5.59 million people bought it doesnt mean that they didn't mind changing discs. In fact I have talked to a few owners of this game and they did not enjoy it. Watch the logical fallacies.
myplague - "a game like Metal Gear would be ruined if a user had to change discs"
The original MGS for PlayStation was on 2 discs, and the 5.59 million people who bought it didn't seem to mind spending a few seconds to change discs during the game.
There is no way a game like metal gear 4 will be ported to xbox360 without sacrificing graphics. The recent video footage shows that the game has come a long way and is clearly using the advantage of blu-ray's capacity. This would be at least 2 or 3 discs on the 360(look at blue dragon) and a game like Metal Gear would be ruined if a user had to change discs.
BTW Final Fantasy 1,2,4,5,6 were all re-released on playstation before being re-released a second time on GBA. Only FFIII was re-released on a nintendo system first.
My point was that only 3 of the games had been released when they could have been on a microsoft system. They don't make handhelds, mobile phones (in 2004) or consoles pre-XBox. That's like saying Sony missed out on games released on the NES...it's not a rational comparison.
No one knows the exact costs of a game that isn't even finished yet. But other developers have stated that producing a cinematic game in the PS3/360 runs in tens of millions and Kojima tends to have high production values. When you release that onto about 10-12 million PS3s (no way that'll get near 14...12 might even be overly optimistic), how many will it sell? Well, all 3 MGS games had about a 5% (actually lower than that, but we'll be generous) attachment rate on the Playstation systems. Even if we double that attachment rate, that'll mean about 1.2 million sold. When the last entries sold 5 million each (though sales have dropped consistently and 3 didn't reach 4 million), that's a huge downward hit for a game that will surely cost more to develop than MGS 1, 2 or 3.
How much money can Konami make by selling 1 million units? I don't know the exact royalty rates, but I doubt it'll cover the cost of this game.
If you want to claim that Sony controls the actions of Square Enix, you might want to wonder why FF 1-6 have been re-released on Nintendo systems before Sony. Nevermind that SquareEnix has not been very supportive of Sony publically lately and had talked a lot about moving its games to systems that sell the most (like Dragon Quest ditching Sony entirely). If Sony has an interest in the company, it's hardly controlling.
If Sony cared about making money off that movie, it'll want more exposure for the series...not let it die on the vine on a 3rd place system.
I believe that link clearly shows Capcom had intended RE:4 to be an exclusive to the GameCube.
Of course just because Capcom does one thing it doesn't mean Konami follow suit. But it does make sense that a company will do what they have to do to make a profit.
“Even if the PS3 sells twice as many units over the next 6 months as it has been (and it won't), its sales will still be small. Konami is looking at taking a HUGE loss on this title judging by its production values.” --Please tell me how much Konami is spending on MGS4, along with how the hypothetical sale 7 million PS3 by X-mas of 2007 and 14 million by X-mas of 2008 relates to that data.
Exclusives do help sell consoles, we both agree on this. Do you remember how the main Final Fantasy series line became a Sony exclusive? First it was hardware, Sony's Playstation was better for FMV than the Nintendo 64, something Squaresoft wanted for its Final Fantasy games. After its success on the Playstation platform Square went to make a Final Fantasy movie. Squaresoft realized some heavy losses and so Sony bought a large percent of Squaresoft's shares. Since then, even after the Squaresoft/Enix merger, Sony has had a controlling interest in the company.
This story has a point, please follow.
Konami is in a better financial state than Squaresoft was. Konami is a very diverse company that has many more services beyond games. Sony knew that it had to secure MGS4 for the PS3, and buying shares wouldn't cut it. Look at the major titles of the PS2 system and you'll see why Sony wants MGS (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games#PlayStation_2). Through some keen negotiating, Sony was selected as the studio to produce the upcoming Metal Gear movie (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal_Gear_Solid_(film)). Personally, I would not be surprised if Sony made a deal with Konami and Kojima to ensure the limited exclusive rights of MGS4 in exchange for a great movie production deal.
It is my opinion that as long as the Metal Gear movie is still being made by Sony studios, we won't be seeing anything close to a “simultaneous” release of MGS4 on the PS3 & XBOX360.
Exclusives don't always move consoles. The Gamecube for example. Capcom took a huge risk and made several exclusives for the system (including the Resident Evil remakes and number 4) but it didn't take and most ended up being ported. Exclusives do help sell a console (I'm not saying they don't) but they can't turn around a system's entire momentum. Besides, I wouldn't think that FF and MGS have a huge crossover in audiences.
1 in 24? You're in hyperbole territory. Only 3 Metal Gear titles have been out on home consoles (the only medium MS is in) since MS hit the scene and 1 of them was on the XBox (the second last and another was a Nintendo exclusive remake). Not that bad of a ratio. A company has to look at this from a sales point of view. Even if the PS3 sells twice as many units over the next 6 months as it has been (and it won't), its sales will still be small. Konami is looking at taking a HUGE loss on this title judging by its production values. They'll have to make that up somewhere and delaying it to do a simultaneous release on the 360 in order to make some more cash in Europe and N.America might take a bit of the sting out. Considering that right now (and for the foreseeable future) there are more than twice as many 360s out there, it's impossible for Konami to ignore.
For the record, I think a Wii project would be their best bet (I would personally love even a MGS3 remake) but a 360 port of MGS4 would be faster and probably more cost effective.
You are exactly right that my PS3 price cut is speculative. However, historically it is very common for a game system to get a price cut after about a year of sales.
As for your idea of a graphically reduced version of MGS4 for the Wii, pure nonsense. However a complete side story like MGS: Portable Ops for the Wii is something I'm sure Konami will do.
As for sales, MSG4 will be coming out around the same time as Final Fantasy XIII. FFXII is an exclusive which means it will move PS3 systems. How many people's first PS1 game was FFVII? How many systems did that push? What about FFX and the PS2? If history is any indicator, FFXIII will move PS3s, and MSG4 will most likely be the 2nd or 3rd game these gamers pick-up.
Lastly, there is a cultural reason why MGS4 will be out on the PS3 long before a XBOX360 port, if any port. It's the same reason why only 1 out of 24 Metal Gear titles have been released on a Microsoft product. When it comes to video games, it is a part of Japanese pride. Japan has produced the leading systems for the past 4 generations. The PS3 fits better into the Japanese lifestyle compared to the XBOX360. Sales in Japan prove this, as it took the PS3 two months what took the XBOX360 15 months to obtain in total sales. Just as the PS3 and Wii are important for the pride of Japan, Metal Gear Solid has become a very important brand-name for Konami. Of course Konami will produce Metal Gear Games for the Wii and PS3, because its good for Japan. Will they produce one for the XBOX360? Only if money becomes an issue.
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They might prefer to only have one disk, but is having to switch disks a big enough annoyance to stop people from buying a game? Historically this has not been true, I see no reason why it would be in the future.