WTF? Can those people buying this stock back up please post their reasoning for why the stock should go up, I see no comments and the stock just rose from 350DKP to 480.
I know some people may be hesitant to short this stock because of it's popularity, but this stock remains overvalued and those who buy stocks based on hype instead of sales figures tend to get burned when the sales data comes out. Better to let this stock drop down to a better price now and keep it down than just let it climb to absurd levels.
@pilias_simber, True of course, so even more reason to believe that the status of MGS4's exclusivity is completely irrelevant due to the nature of it's fanbase.
I wonder how many of the current < 4 million PS3 owners are Metal Gear players. I'm the sure the sell-trough rate would be artificially high compared to other games :)
@pilias_simber, Thanks Pilias, it is definately overvalued (even beyond yesterday's speculative jump).
I consider MGS3 to be the best game in the series and I do believe the MGS4 can help gain back some of its lost lustre and trust from MGS2. MGS2's hype (and ultimate failure to deliver) caused a lot of fair-weather fans to simply give up in disgust- and I don't blame them.
I think MGS3 sales represent the hardcore contingent of gamers that will buy anything Metal Gear (good or bad), and any sales after that are simply gravy for Konami.
If it is not delayed further MGS4 could make up a lot of 'gravy' following the normally quiet Christmas season. Your estimates are right on the money with what I believe to be modest growth for this series.
I find it hard to justify the 6.6M copies currently predicted. That's over a million more than the best selling MGS game on the PSX, based on zeromous's figures below.
And that 5.59M is based on a console that sold in excess of 100M. That's 5-6% attach rate. On the PS2, the attach rate is lower because MGS2 and 3 sold less on a larger user base.
Based on our own lifetime prediction of PS3 sales at roughly 59M, a generous 6% attach rate would only attract a little over 3.5M copies.
If, and that's IF in capital letters, MGS4 is no longer going to be exclusive, it will hurt sales of the PS3 version further.
Sales have been trending down for the series and even factoring in this is the first one on the PS3 I still don't see it outselling MGS2.
The game is launching 1st quarter 08, and even if it remains exclusive it is doubtful that this game would suddenly pick up another 1-2 million fans who will buy the game. I would say this game should be valued between 400-450 DKP, and thats being generous IMO.
When is everyone going to stop debating whether this is exclusive or not (it is likely a timed exclusive if Sony can't sell more consoles) and focus on the real important thing here: SALES.
Metal Gear Solid (Best game of its gen): 100 million+ consoles sold MGS Sold: 5.59 million
Metal Gear Solid 2 (Best 2nd Gen PS2 game): 120 million+ consoles sold MGS2 Sold: 5.52 million
Metal Gear Solid 3 (Best MGS Game Ever??): 120 million+ consoles sold MGS3 Sold: 3.96 million MGS3:Subsistence Sold: 150k
Can anyone explain on what basis they expect this game to sell more than 6 million copies on PS3 with reduced Sony Market share, and a clearly waning Metal Gear Audience?
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Just because you shorted a stock and are now getting burned doesn't mean people have to justify thier actions towards you.
Frankly I agree that the price is too high, but that's the market for you, and you sorta have to take that into account.
Of course you are ranked alot higher then me, so what do I know.