@Deltaneutral, I know, thats why I am trying to put out periodic notes when I see stocks like this that have drifted up to the absurd range with their prices. We usually see them dip down and then pick up again over time.
@pilias_simber, the problem with these titles is that a lot of people think they sell a lot more than they do. Or we picked up a lot more new users and they tend to buy big name franchise games.
You may want to check your facts on MGS2. I wouldn't call the Wiki a good source for sales information.
From vgchartz: 5.56 MGS2 0.16 Substance PS2 = 5.72 million
You also might want to note, that MGS3 (an arguably superior game) sold
3.96 MGS3 0.15 Subsistance = a 4.11 million
That tells me that about 1.75 million people somewhat regretted buying MGS2 (I'd say they are ignorant, but that's not what this post is about) and chose not to add a better follow-up title to their collection.
Considering the install base of PS3 is so weak (you really predict 10 million by March 08? not with GTAIV delayed it won't) there is no way this title will eclipse 5 million in its shelf life. You'll be trading PS4 futures by the time it reaches this plateau.
I's thinking this will be a must have title for the PS3, providing it is still exclusive. The series has usually sold well, MGS2 in the 7 million range: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games#PlayStation_2
With a predicted 10 million PS3 sales by March '08 (http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/8442.cfm), I think long term it's a good buy.
The funny thing about this is that even without the rumor this stock is still pretty overpriced. Everyone who has purchased this stock and made it rise back up to 500 DKP have now made the stock severely overvalued again.
You are right, my numbers are a tally of NPD, Media Create and various European sources for the original SKU (i.e. not counting MGS2: Substance or MGS3: Subsistence).
Shipment numbers would be more appropriate, but I don't really put a lot of faith in vgchartz's numbers.
This Konami press release has MGS3 at 3.7 million, so your number of 3.96 million seems to fit.
I agree with you that anything over 400DKP is an unsupportable number, since it is higher than the previous game sold on a 124 million install base.
(from vgchartz, worldwide) MGS - 5.59 million on 102 million PS MGS2 - 5.56 million on 124 million PS2 MGS3 - 3.96 million on 124 million PS2
Attachment rates range from 3-5.5%. Under a million sales for Twin Snakes on GC and MGS2 on XB.
I feel that, at best, this title should be priced under 300 DKP. Possibly even closer to 200 DKP. There simply isn't the install base to support this series. While being critically acclaimed, its past sales don't warrant this price on the a console with sales like the PS3.
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I know, thats why I am trying to put out periodic notes when I see stocks like this that have drifted up to the absurd range with their prices. We usually see them dip down and then pick up again over time.