The top selling XBox games include above anything else FPS. At the bottom of the top selling games there are a couple RPGs and a racing game, but everything at the top is a FPS/Tom Clancy game.
The XBox360's top list also has a FPS, but right under it is an RPG, a couple sports games, a fighter, and some more FPS/Tom Clancy games. I would also note that the attach rate for the 360 is way higher than it was for the XBox, and certainly higher than the PS2.
Another figure that makes me think this game will do well is the attention articles written about it on gaming sites get. Compare the number of hits GTA IV for the 360 gets to the PS3, or to Vice City or San Andreas got, there is a significant rise in attention this game is getting, most of that attention seems to be aimed at the 360 more than the PS3 which tells me that there is a significant number of XBox360 users who are interested in this game.
Also I would point out that this game has maintained an average of 2 million DKP/day so far, so it is a very popular stock.
Why ignore the Xbox? It had the previous GTA games available for it.
I don't see the 360 branching out into new genres of games. The top games on the Xbox were sci-fi shooters, Tom Clancy games, American RPGs, a first-party racing series, multiplat sports games, 3rd person action games... The top games on the 360 are FPSs, Tom Clancy games, an American RPG, multiplat sports games, 3rd person action games...
What titles are doing well on the 360 that didn't do well on the original? Replace "GTA" and "Halo" with "Crackdown/Saint's Row" and "Gears of War" and the top selling game lists are pretty darn similar. I would say that Microsoft did a fine job in converting Xbox owners to the 360 early on, but what says that they've branched out to new gamers? The cannibalized sales of the Xbox seem to also suggest a successful movement of owners to next-gen (though overall console sales goals were recently cut back).
Comparing to GTA3 seems a bit flawed to me because it was essentially a new series at that point (3rd person sandbox title), whereas GTA4 is a continuation (basically the 4th GTA of that style and only in 6 years).
I agree that Halo will move consoles, but is there reason to think that Halo fans will branch out? Halo stands out distinctly among Xbox titles...no other title comes close to its sales. Are Halo fans necessarily going to care about GTA? Or vice-versa?
I didn't say neither a PS2 or a XBox, I said a PS2.
The XBox was marketed as a Niche Gaming console, and it did very well for its niche, but there were a good number of games that were released for it simply to pick up a few hundred thousand more sales and thats exactly what they got.
This is not the case with the 360, there are a larger variety of titles that are doing very well in sales on it, so either people have changed their interests or new people are buying the 360. The top games are still from the same Genre, which tells me that there are a bunch of XBox owners who carried over, but in addition there are new people picking the system up who never owned an XBox. It is because of that info that I am basing my estimate that GTA will do well on the 360. Honestly I do not think the PS3 version will sell in the millions, the PS3 is not the same machine the PS2 was, and its not marketed at the same audience.
I am comparing the performance of this title to how GTA III did, not San Andreas because it is the first title being released on the new system, not the 3rd, but honestly I think the biggest impact on the consumer base for the 360 is the launch of it's star game, Halo 3. I would point out that Halo 3 launches 2 months before this titles does. That gives plenty of time for people holding out for a 360 to pick it up, and once they have it they will start to look at other titles, just like people who picked up the PS2 for Gran Turismo branched out after picking that title up.
Even a low end 360 and a game is gonna run close to twice what it cost to pick up a PS2 to play San Andreas. It's a much bigger financial committment now.
Also, why do you assume that "a ton" of 360 owners didn't have an X-Box or PS2 (as GTA is available on both)? Is there any reason to think that the 360 has brought in a lot of new gamers?
If fans want the new GTA game they are going to have to either buy an XBox360 or a PS3, and the 360 is cheaper and has better games on it, and I don't foresee that changing before this game launches, nor over most of the lifespan of this game, so unless they have already gotten a console I believe they are more likely to purchase a 360 over a PS3, unless the PS3 version of this game gets amazingly better ratings on the PS3 which I doubt based on how past releases for games have done.
There are a ton of new people who own a 360 and don't necessarily own a PS2 who may pick up this game, so that would be new people
New fans only exist if they have the console and can play the game. I don't see the 360 as gaining all those GTA fans from the PS2 (and GTA didn't sell too hot on the X-Box).
I feel that the 360 and PS3 are going to be fighting it out for the GTA fans, but that it'll be quite a few years before most of them switch over. And how many of them will choose the Wii instead? I agree that the 360 will outsell the PS3, I just don't think the first next-gen GTA will impress sales-wise. But I'm going to stop commenting on it cause I'm tired of getting downbids for not pimping this stock.
but of course on top of all the past fans you will pick up new fans and there are a good number of markets that are significantly larger now than they were in times past. Personally I tend to think that the PS3 version is quite a bit overvalued but I stand by my statement about the 360 version, in the lifespan of this game I believe we will see it hit it's mark.
The PS2 version (ignoring Japanese sales since they were quite low) of San Andreas had an attach rate of about 17%. If GTA4 had the same attach rate, you'd need about 47 million consoles around. That's a huge jump. Also, since it's a simultaneous launch on both consoles, it's really impossible to judge which system this will sell people on.
These stocks seem to assume that 100% of San Andreas fans will make the jump to next-gen for GTA4, but the sales numbers just aren't there. And the GTA series tends to release new versions, so this won't be the only next-gen GTA in a couple years.
2
The XBox360's top list also has a FPS, but right under it is an RPG, a couple sports games, a fighter, and some more FPS/Tom Clancy games. I would also note that the attach rate for the 360 is way higher than it was for the XBox, and certainly higher than the PS2.
Another figure that makes me think this game will do well is the attention articles written about it on gaming sites get. Compare the number of hits GTA IV for the 360 gets to the PS3, or to Vice City or San Andreas got, there is a significant rise in attention this game is getting, most of that attention seems to be aimed at the 360 more than the PS3 which tells me that there is a significant number of XBox360 users who are interested in this game.
Also I would point out that this game has maintained an average of 2 million DKP/day so far, so it is a very popular stock.