True in the short term, unfortunately you will see all the noobs and uneducated guessers buy it right back up. That's what's really frustrating about long positions for me as opposed to monthly futures or metacritic....those 2 markets are reconciled with hard facts within 60 days or so, whereas the long positions that are still far from release date are all over the map. But if you look at the real data available, it's just utterly unrealistic to expect this game to sell 10 or 12 million copies. The consoles life cycle isn't even going to be long enough to facilitate such numbers, IMO.
woow!! 5 mil drop in 10 days! aaa-mazing! Seeing this happen all over the place but not as huge as this. Have lost a lot with stuffs, but it's great to see this because I believe it means thesimexchange is doing more serious reality checks.
I couldn't agree more. We really think that this game is going to double the sales of Halo 3? If anything, I would think the two would be roughly equivalent, with maybe a 10-15% spread or so in favor of GTA IV based on hype and slightly more universal brand name recognition.
I just hope my margins don't get called by people artifically inflating this back up solely due to the fact that it's named Grand Theft Auto!!
The GTA series sold between 11-15 million each on the PS2 which had an install base of over 120 million. GTA4 will come out on a system that will probably sell between 30-45 million units, as well as having sales split with the PS3 (I would estimate about 60% of sales going to the 360).
If GTA on the 360 had the same attach rate as GTA on the PS2, it should be closer to 5.5 million. If 13 million people want to buy this game (and going with my previous estimate of sales split with PS3), it should be closer to 7.5 million.
Personally I think both those systems (360/PS3) have lost a decent chunk of the audience that bought the GTA series. I think this game should be AT MOST 700 DKP and more realistically the price should be sitting around 500 DKP.
Nope, Fans maybe? But I wouldn't short it right now, it will just be bought up again. I made that mistake as a newbie. Wait until the game is near release.
It's also worth noting that, for the most part, GTA has until now been a Sony exclusive. There will most likely be a small but statistically noticeable hesitation on the part of the 360's consumer base, and let's not ignore the logistical problems with manufacturing, packaging, and shipping 9.5 Million disks in week 1.
I call BS. If you look at the number of Xbox 360s that have actually been sold in the entire world, it's currently (Oct 9) at around 11.5 Million. If history is any exception, Japan will have little interest in it, and it will be banned in Australia, meaning that for it to hit 8.1 million copies in it's first week, nearly everyone in the Americas and Europe will have to buy it. IF they can even produce the 9.5M copies that this article claims, (which is a whole separate reason in itself) and IF (lotta ifs here) they can pull off a simultaneous release. I'm not saying that this is impossible, I'm only saying it's ridiculous.
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