We still have a bit until this game launches and the beginning of the year always sees slower sales. Keep in mind that this game will launch 4 months after Halo 3, which is a guaranteed system seller.
I don't think it is out of line to see 6 million 360s sold from January to the end of the year, hell I wouldn't even be surprised to see 4 million sold between January and when this game launches.
Also keep in mind that GTA3 was a system seller for the PS2, and it's not out of line to think that its sequels might be enough motivation to get fans to buy this game, and if the XBox360 drops in price this year you can almost guarantee more sales from all of its games.
"Guaranteed climb"? Not so much. Unless people expect the 360 install base to double by the end of the year (and sales numbers don't support that happening), then you're looking at an insanely high attach rate, especially considering it's multi-plat. The more I look into GTA4, the less I like these stock prices.
It comes down to whether most of the 16 million fans of GTA have bought a 360/PS3, and even combining their sales right now that's impossible (nevermind that the PS2 is still selling well). I wouldn't touch these stocks with a 10-ft pole...I think they've overpriced, but too many fans are going to keep the price artificially high until sales numbers come in.
What I like about this, is that they're already starting to advertise this game in stores & gamestops. I can feel safe knowing I invested money in this and it's a guarnteed climb. This is going to be a hit, and definately will outsell the PS3 version. This is just my opinon, anyone have a drink? We have awhile lol.
GTA was a great seller for PS3. Xbox 360 has far better graphics than ps3 therefore GTA IV should be a greater hit on Xbox 360. Again not everyone owns a PS3 so this is something they might be looking forward to. The trailer makes the game seem very detailed, the animations and movement shown by the people on the sidewalks was pretty impresive. One problem that I see in the release of this game is that the fans had to wait so long and that usually rises expectations so if it ends up not being all that sales will go down.
The only average Joe's who hold that perception already own the PS3. Games so far have looked better on the 360 with the exception of Oblivion which they took an extra year to work on.
I can't see the PS3 install base getting any larger in terms of market share in 2007 than it is now. As such i can't see 360 GTA being outsold by ps3 GTA. I will however be interested to see the perceived quality between the two by the general public - IE average joe says " blu ray has more space so it'll look better on ps3"
Take a look at the numbers sold so far, already the 360 is outpacing the PS3 version in terms of volume sold, the 360 for sure is going to be the better stock, but they are both worth putting money into.
It's not only about the installed base. GTA will be a system seller to many people and the 360 is the cheaper system. If the 360 version isn't horribly gimped (which I really doubt since the only other game using RAGE is running exclusively on the 360), I'd be very surprised if the PS3 version sells more.
Well, these games basically don't much in Japan (not even to really affect the price here), so considering PAL and America...
There's 4 times as many 360s as PS3s (not counting Japan). About twice as many 360s were sold in America than PS3s (for February). Unless those sales flip dramatically, the install gap will grow by October, not close.
It'll be interesting which system this sells better on. Initially, I'd say the 360, but then you have to remember it'll be a while until it releases, so the PS3 will have probably closed the gap (at least a bit) by then. What do you guys say?
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I don't think it is out of line to see 6 million 360s sold from January to the end of the year, hell I wouldn't even be surprised to see 4 million sold between January and when this game launches.
Also keep in mind that GTA3 was a system seller for the PS2, and it's not out of line to think that its sequels might be enough motivation to get fans to buy this game, and if the XBox360 drops in price this year you can almost guarantee more sales from all of its games.