For the past two months, I moved to be heavily invested in lifetime stocks...I dumped millions into certain ones (over 8 million in the case of GTA4) to try and nudge the price in one direction. However, it failed miserably, and I've lost about 20% of my portfolio's value and I'm still trying to stop the bleeding.
To maximize your return on short position, it would be better to wait for this to reach the probable higher price before taking a position. Every time I have tried taking short position on popular GLS, it has always resulted in losses, even if I think I am correct in longterm pricing. I am losing on all my current GLS short positions currently too. Maybe I should follow my own advice more :)
Besides, I'm still slowly pulling out of my position in the stock (at my peak, I had over 8.1 million DKP in shorts) as I try to re-organize my portfolio. Unfortunately, that will cause some price spikes.
@apujanata, Unfortunately, I tend to agree with you. With the hype, this stock will certainly go even higher. But I don't believe the sales will do ... so I'm shorting when I can ...
Not trying to rain on your parade or anything like that, but I wanted to do prediction on this stock movement : I believe that the price of this game will go up again, at least to 12.5 million level. Right now, there are lots of barrier put at 10 million and 11.5 million, but I still believe that by March 15, 2008, one month from now, this stock will be back to 12.5 or even higher price average.
Anyone agree or disagree with me ? BTW, I will not buy or sell this stock until March 15, so I am a neutral bystander.
@vGInfidel, This has gotten somewhat ridiculous in the past few weeks and at least it has come down a bit from its 13 million level. We will see some nice movement when its first couple of months worth of NPD numbers come in though.
People should also remember that Take-Two usually puts out at least two GTA games out during each generation of consoles and when another comes out, it effectively eats a large part of any future sales for the previous game.
@apujanata, I have to say that is on the best comments (not including those with really good analysis) I have seen on the SE: "Certainly not me, since I like my money."
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Haha!
Good luck.
For the past two months, I moved to be heavily invested in lifetime stocks...I dumped millions into certain ones (over 8 million in the case of GTA4) to try and nudge the price in one direction. However, it failed miserably, and I've lost about 20% of my portfolio's value and I'm still trying to stop the bleeding.