Well, I have to say something about that discussion thing. GTA has discussed to death, a lot of people talking it down, and it keep going bought up again. Discuss how much you want, but unless sales prove you right, more people think you are wrong. Plain and Simple.
I personal don't discuss that much anymore. Why? Well in the futures, I see if I am right on a date. Plain and simple. On a stock? It didn't helped me a thing so far. I can have a point, a lot of people agrees in the discussion but the stock doesn't move as it should. And if it moves, and news come in that I was wrong, I am more or less responsible that other "followed" me.
This game is about predicting sales, your right. And in the end, those who are right are most likely rewarded. Other people don't have to give a reason why they are doing x or y. All of them will have their thoughts on stocks and games. It can not be that this stock is only moved by "the stupid mass". If enough people believe it would sell less, than the price is lower. If the mass make constantly such "stupid" prediction like some here suggest, they would be serious hurt by losses. Those who keep it at the current price have either a short and buying it back at a profit, or have serious amount of money. And if they have have that kind of money, they have it for a reason, because they where right before. plain and simple. That is the game you are in and signed up for, plain and simple.
If you don't like that the GLS are more or less guessing (which they are, if no data gets available) than don't invest and go to the future market. If you are very right with your positions, you can make more money way faster than with the GLS anyway.
Additional comment : Someone with significant money has put barrier at the 1000 DKP price point. I see at least 1 Million DKP barrier. Unless someone with a lot of money can break through this barrier, I am not sure that it is possible for this stock to go to the appropriate level.
Sagexsdx, with your high worth, you could be key in this stock. Do you agree that this stock should be shorted ? Are you willing to commit your money on this stock ?
The more people agree that this stock is overvalued, and are willing to commit their money, the bigger the possibilities that this stock can go down.
I am willing to commit my money, but without any friend, I will not commit a large percentage of my networth (unless there was no other worthy stock for my investment).
I don't agree with your assessment regarding Halo vs GTA. You think that Halo is a bigger series.
If you only consider X360 / XBOX platform, then your statement is correct. But when you consider all platform, it is a different story.
GTA : San Andreas (all platform) sales # in US alone is 47% higher than Halo 2 (standard + Limited). For GTA:SA PS2 vs XBOX, 13% are sold on XBOX, while 87% are sold on PS2.
Halo 3 current prediction is 9.5 Million. If we increase them by 50%, we got 14.2 Million. Current GTA4 is 11.5 X360 + 7.1 PS3 = 18.6.
Total combined GTA 4 is too high. It should be 14 Million.
It is up to you to decide what are the right breakdown percentage between PS3 and X360 version. Since it has been proven that it is not true that PS3 version does not have online capability, I believe that it should be at worst 50%:50%, and at best 60% (PS3) : 40% (X360), which is way down from GTA:SA result : 87% (PS2) : 13% (XBOX).
I decrease PS3 share since their H/W LTD vs. X360 is much, much worse compared to PS2 vs. XBOX. Since there are lots of existing fans in PS brand, the drop will not be too severe (it will not happen that PS3 # will be less than X360 #).
Have fun trying to short this stock. Once I got my money free from NPD data release (should happen in about 12 more hours), I will start short selling this stock, IF the price is still at the current level (1154 DKP), or way above my best prediction : 7.1 Million.
there's decent amount of conversation in places. i think the problem is that people with a good handle on the numbers and trends feel pretty discouraged due to events as of late. a lot of stock - no matter how overvalued it is and no matter how much people bring attention to the fact - seems to just keep going up and up.
only in the past couple weeks (i think after the january monthly winners came out) has there been such an overflow of articles. prior to this, i saw maybe 10-20 articles a day at TSE. now it spans many pages for 1 day.
hopefully the long timers and people with logical statements to make will keep sticking around.
your exactly right, it is a matter of ignorance and stupidity, i dont think people realise that the aim of the game is to make money (and in the process make predictions based on everyones overall feelings on the product through buying/shorting stock).
i see point in posting about it though. i like to post comments on my thoughts about a particular stock in the hope some people interested in it also share their views and reasoning behind them, therefore starting a discussion and to eventually make a better prediction and why it is so. its something that seems lacking in TSE community imo and im led to believe by some other posts ive seen that it wasnt always so.
all people seem interested in is posting stories so they can get upbids and shooting down any other posts of the same story so they dont lose out. either that or people are secretive about their views so other people cant copy and they make more money. theres not enough discussion about the price of stocks i feel and it can only be of detriment to TSE in the long run.
there isnt really any point in saying anything about it. i think the people pushing it up probably don't look at the comments anyway.
also even when the numbers come out, i doubt it will affect the overvalued...ness of this stock. look at call of duty 4 for xbox 360 and pc.
i think another thing that might happen is that many of the people doing such atrocious trades don't understand the concept of "buy low sell high". they see a game have large percentage gains for the day and they think they should also buy. and then they avoid games that have large percentage losses for the day thinking it's a stupid game.
using the experience of when the company i work for went public and there were information q&a sessions for the IPO, i don't doubt any sort of ignorance when it comes to these sorts of things.
is this stock seriously still going up, ive got a max short on this one so take my opinion as you will, but theres no way that OVER HALF of the 360's foreseeable userbase after the next 6 months will purchase this game. Halo3 the 360's biggest franchise by FAR is only around 950dkp and that had what was considered to be an extremely high attatch rate. This prediction suggests that even with 7 months worth more 360's sold the attatch rate is going to go above halo.
i should have followed my own advice about GT5 and not shorted a game that will ride a tide of fanboy support until the sales numbers come out.
3
Well, I have to say something about that discussion thing. GTA has discussed to death, a lot of people talking it down, and it keep going bought up again. Discuss how much you want, but unless sales prove you right, more people think you are wrong. Plain and Simple.
I personal don't discuss that much anymore. Why? Well in the futures, I see if I am right on a date. Plain and simple. On a stock? It didn't helped me a thing so far. I can have a point, a lot of people agrees in the discussion but the stock doesn't move as it should. And if it moves, and news come in that I was wrong, I am more or less responsible that other "followed" me.
This game is about predicting sales, your right. And in the end, those who are right are most likely rewarded. Other people don't have to give a reason why they are doing x or y. All of them will have their thoughts on stocks and games. It can not be that this stock is only moved by "the stupid mass". If enough people believe it would sell less, than the price is lower. If the mass make constantly such "stupid" prediction like some here suggest, they would be serious hurt by losses. Those who keep it at the current price have either a short and buying it back at a profit, or have serious amount of money. And if they have have that kind of money, they have it for a reason, because they where right before. plain and simple. That is the game you are in and signed up for, plain and simple.
If you don't like that the GLS are more or less guessing (which they are, if no data gets available) than don't invest and go to the future market. If you are very right with your positions, you can make more money way faster than with the GLS anyway.