@apujanata,IMO the very definition of legs is that a game has staying power and sells steadily and consistently for a long period of time. These are 2004 data (many thanks to yourself):
Jan: Halo - 104,123 SSBM - 40,035
Feb: Halo - 88,979 SSBM - 40,174
Mar: Halo - 83,338 SSBM - 51,950
Apr: Halo - 86,259 SSBM - 35,924
May: Halo - 62,572 SSBM - 28,192
Jun: Halo - 100,016 SSBM - 53,090
Jul: Halo - 92,660 SSBM - 43,549
Aug: Halo - 88,488 SSBM - 38,328
Sep: Halo - 87,529 SSBM - 36,422
Oct: Halo - 63,886 SSBM - 28,028
Nov: Halo - 106,231 SSBM - 42,521
Dec: Halo - 152,976 SSBM - 152,962
I think any game that sells an average of 93k monthly in its third year, will be qualified for having great legs. Again, with limited installed base, when a game sells a huge amount in its first month, you shouldn't expect it to not drop drastically, but if the game keeps selling and remains as one of the best selling games in the next months (and even years) then I say it has great legs. Halo 3 will probably remain in the top 30 best selling games of each month in 2008 and even 2009.
@sagexsdx, I didn't infer that Halo 3 severe drop in second month mean there was no interest for Halo 3, but I am just stating the fact, and made my conclusion that Halo 3 doesn't have legs.
Since Halo 3 1st M sales are very high, it might not be suitable for comparison against Pokemon, with their 1st M sales of only 1 Million (each), or 2 Million (combined). But I am sure you will agree that Pokemon's 67% or 68% drop is significantly less severe than Halo 3's 83% drop, right ? I mean, the remaining 17% for Halo 3 is only HALF of remaining 33% for Pokemon, which certainly qualify as significant difference.
well of course the first month sales for halo 3 (3.3 mil) were much higher than a normal first month sales. i think in halo 3's case, the drop off was to more "normal" sales numbers. so the 83% drop isn't necessarily because of a lack of interest but rather a normalization of sales.
@starship, How drastic is drastic for those 1 Million + first month seller ? Will it have different % for 1 Million +, compared to 2 Million + ?
The very definition of legs, is that the drop is not drastic. Let's compare Halo 3, a game I do not consider as having legs, with Pokemon, a game I consider as having legs. Halo 3 1st M vs. 2nd M is 83% drop. Pokemon Diamond 1st M vs. 2nd M is 68% drop. Pokemon Pearl 1st M vs. 2nd M is 67% drop.
What happened if SSBB 2nd month is 23% (67% drop) of it's 1st month, and the first so happen to be 2.8 Million ? It became 644 K.
What happened IF SSBB 2nd month is way better than Pokemon ? Say like Wario Ware : Smooth moves, with it's 46% drop ? That means SSBB 2nd month could be 1.512 Million. Of course, the possibility of 1.5 Million second month is very slim, but getting 1 Million or 800K is not impossible.
@apujanata, The original Halo and Halo 2 are still selling FWIW. When a game sells more than 3m in its first month, you can't expect it to not drop drastically in the next months.
@apujanata, The Super Smash Bros series has always had long legs (especially in the form SSBM). If this title is able to maintain sales like SSBM, which it is already surpassing, then this title could be a best seller all the way into the last months of the current Wii platform (just like SSBM, which was the top selling GC title throughout the lifespan of the GC including for one of the very last months of the GC right after the Wii came out).
Ah well, Halo has also long legs (as anybody can see) but dropped in its second month down to 400k. If you sell those for months, you have legs ;) No I hold my short for april, still think it will drop off to a "normal high sales level".
Ha ha ha. Funny that the March is 2.5 Million at the moment, and yet the April is only 700K. That mean the market is predicting 70% drop from first month to second month, which is a little bit too pessimistic (IMO), especially since SSBM is known as one of the game with longest leg.
3
Jan:
Halo - 104,123
SSBM - 40,035
Feb:
Halo - 88,979
SSBM - 40,174
Mar:
Halo - 83,338
SSBM - 51,950
Apr:
Halo - 86,259
SSBM - 35,924
May:
Halo - 62,572
SSBM - 28,192
Jun:
Halo - 100,016
SSBM - 53,090
Jul:
Halo - 92,660
SSBM - 43,549
Aug:
Halo - 88,488
SSBM - 38,328
Sep:
Halo - 87,529
SSBM - 36,422
Oct:
Halo - 63,886
SSBM - 28,028
Nov:
Halo - 106,231
SSBM - 42,521
Dec:
Halo - 152,976
SSBM - 152,962
I think any game that sells an average of 93k monthly in its third year, will be qualified for having great legs.
Again, with limited installed base, when a game sells a huge amount in its first month, you shouldn't expect it to not drop drastically, but if the game keeps selling and remains as one of the best selling games in the next months (and even years) then I say it has great legs.
Halo 3 will probably remain in the top 30 best selling games of each month in 2008 and even 2009.