Well, depending on whom you like to believe, SW sales in Germany (gaming) the PC is 30-50% of the market. In France and uk its less. I think there are only 3 big PC nations in the world at the moment: Germany, Sweden and the Asiatic one.
I see. Thanks for the info. Isn't Germany PC land ? Will the PS3 version enjoy good sales in Germany (in spite of PC dominance) ?
Anyway, I am only contributing what I could to this topic. I have decided to stay away from this stock, since the margin is not good (could be even worse than 20% based on your input), and because I stay away from GLS stock. I will unload my small investment in this game stock over the next few days.
Sorry, but in Europe the game will sell better than in the US. The PS3 gets more support here, and UT is a big franchise, at least in Germany (so I guess also in the rest of the EU.)
I do not follow Europe closely, I only follow Japan and US, since the data is more regular and transparent. I do agree that there are more PS2 in Europe, but we are talking PS3 here. PS3 sales in Europe is way smaller than PS2, but still higher than X360 (if we count selling rate from launch date, not LTD, since IIRC, PS3 LTD in Europe is still less than X360 LTD).
I did take into account all sales we'll still see in the US : "113K (Dec, 4 weeks sales) + 66K (Jan, 50% of Dec) + 170K (sales for remaining life) = 340K."
Do you see the 170K (sales for remaining life). That is sales for Feb - end of life of UT3 (PS3), in US.
Actually Europe is PS land, there were more PS2's sold in Europe than in the US despite the US being a larger market as a whole. I wouldn't be surprised to see more sales in Europe than we see in the US, plus you need to take into account all the sales we'll still see in the US.
IF we take Europe into account, then let's be generous and asssume that Europe GLS = US GLS (I don't think Japan GLS will be big, so I will just assume 50K, max). Total = 340K (US) + 340K (Europe) + 50K (Japan) = 830K. This means the stock is much less attractive (only 20%+ profit margin, instead of 50%+ margin).
Anyone has Europe vs US figure for games in the same type as UT3, that we can use as comparison ? I think the 340K Europe figure is too shaky.
None of the points you brought up, nor the evidence provided by Zukaus caused my statements to be wrong.
Keep in mind that we are looking at lifetime sales on this stock, not end of March sales, we still have a very long time for things to sell and this game is still relatively new.
2 Million shipped doesn't seem that horrible to me. It had some massive competition from games like Halo 3 and CoD4, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a fair amount of sales off of this game, especially with the upcoming European Launch of the PS3 version of the game.
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Well, depending on whom you like to believe, SW sales in Germany (gaming) the PC is 30-50% of the market. In France and uk its less. I think there are only 3 big PC nations in the world at the moment: Germany, Sweden and the Asiatic one.