@zukaus, Based on your evidence, then pilias_simber'sm statement "We know that the PS3 version did less than 376k in Nov and less than 612k in december. We also know it did less than 132k in Jan" are wrong on this following part : - UT3 PS3 is only released on Dec 11, so no Nov sales. - UT3 PS3 Dec 08 is way, way below his "Less than 612K" (actual is 113K).
What we usually know is : Dec sales are usually way above Jan - March Sales. Therefore, my calculation is : 113K (Dec, 4 weeks sales) + 66K (Jan, 50% of Dec) + 170K (sales for remaining life) = 340K. That means this stock is way, way overvalued at the current price of 104.81.
Who drove this stock price to 1.23 Million yesterday ? With over 50% Margin of Safety, this stock sure looks interesting :D
The price rise on this game is too much overreaction in my opinion, especially the PC version. 1.2 million units shipped is split between worldwide PC shipments and NA PS3 shipments, I guess 400K PS3 and 800K for worldwide PC shipments.
I do not believe sellthrough of this title has been very good, it has only appeared in the German PC chart 2 times since launch, while Crysis and CoD4 have regularly appeared in the chart, and CoD4 PC version has appeared in many European country charts. We also know that CoD4 was best selling PC game in Europe last quarter (from Activision financial statement about sellthrough of CoD4), and online activity for this game is very low for such a game.
I don't think this has been mentioned but we actually do have UT3 PS3 launch numbers. 113,000 copies were sold in December, and since we also have the top ten for January we know they sold less than 133,000 copies last month.
Part of that 1 million sales also includes Digital Downloads as is stated specifically in the articles covering it.
Considering we don't have data yes my figures are guesswork. I don't know if you're purposely missing that when I repeat it over and over again or just misunderstanding me, we don't HAVE actual sales data, thats kinda why we're trying to determine what they may be based on other evidence, I don't know why you keep asking if the numbers are guesswork again and again.
@Laoldar, IIRC, German is PC Land (means PC games sales are way above console games sales). I think a lot of Europe's PC games sales come from German.
Since we are talking about Unreal Tournament, I believe most (50% plus) of the games sales are on PC. Most of my friend play them on PC, not on console. Keyboard + mouse is way better than gamepad (in my friends opinion). Since I did not play Unreal Tournament, all the info in this paragraph is based on input from my friend :D
@Laoldar, sorry! i miss-clicked and downbid :"> upbid 3 other posts in this thread. ooopsie. Just wanted to say. I was just following the discussion with itnerest.
I notice you missed the data about Crysis European sales. While Crysis only sold 86,000 in the US in November, the game had sold 1 million by the end of January. It seems pretty obvious that most of those sales came from Europe.
Given that we have two examples (Crysis, Quake Wars) where the vast majority of PC sales came from outside the US, why are you assuming that the PS3 version sold more?
I really don't see where your logic is in this post. You throw out a few numbers on US PC sales, and then (seemingly at random) pull out a number of 400k for UT3 sales. Where did that come from? It looks like pure guesswork.
Unless some evidence can be provided that digital downloads are being included in shipped numbers I'm going to go off the assumption that they are not counting for shipped numbers.
1
So you go only by USA? I am missing Europe in your sales.